Poll finds VA back to pre-convention status, but before "deplorable" weekend
Despite two recent polls showing a tied race, a PPP poll in Virginia released today contends that the VA race has returned to stasis. The poll showed a six-point edge for Hillary, right around the five-point average lead she has held in recent months. This comes after Clinton had surged will into the lead in Virginia since her convention, by somewhere between seven and thirteen points.
If Virginia is back to where it started in a poll in the field through 9/11 when the medical incident occurred, shouldn't we expect it to move toward Trump now, at least temporarily? The race has probably reset for some with Clinton attacking voters and causing real doubt that she's physically up to the job. Many Virginia voters are in the military and I suspect the deplorable comment went over badly with those folks. After-all, they are serving the country. Wouldn't a civilian calling their mates deplorable while they are putting their lives on the line cause some leaning Hillary to reconsider? That deplorable comment will impact Virginia more so than most states.
I suspect PPP is right that Virginia is for Clinton by around five points absent new information, but this weekend qualifies as ground-shaking. I'm just saying we should see what Virginia does over the coming two weeks leading up to debate. If it pulls back to even, Trump could take the lead in the debates.
You doubt that? Well for Trump it's all about being an acceptable alternative. If he continues to play the roll of presidential and finally starts spending real ad dollars in Virginia, he could pass that low bar. He doesn't have to be that fast, just faster than Hillary. We learned this weekend that she is pretty slow politically. And remember, Virginia is the headquarters of the establishment. If you see the establishment start to move to Trump as polls tighten, as some already have, then watch Virginia close.
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0.29 point Margin in Ref's Battlegrounds.
There are now four realisitic scenarios where Trump can win without Pennsylvania.