Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Trump up 2 points in Wisconsin

A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Trump leading Hillary by 2 points in Wisconsin. Trump tops Clinton, receiving 40% to Clinton's 38% support in the poll. The poll included 523 likely voters and was taken from August 26th to September 8th. The tightening in polls began right around September 1st around the country, so this poll includes just under half of its sample from before that time, suggesting more movement favoring Trump is possible.

The fivethirtyeight.com website rates Ipsos polls with an A- rating, which is high grade for the website. The poll barely skews Democratic, according to fivethirtyeight.com, by 0.1%. This indicates that it has a very small bias. Many polls have a worse bias, such as CBS's pollster YouGov that has a bias of plus 1.6% for Democrats.

This changes Wisconsin from +2.34 points for Clinton to +2.0 for her in the Ref's Battleground Index.

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The Ref's Battleground Index

Clinton +0.84 Points in All Ref Battlegrounds

There are now four realisitic scenarios where Trump can win without Pennsylvania.