Why the Polls Matter a Great Deal

McCain Playing the Expectations Game Well

Apparently the McCain campaign expects to trail Obama in the polls by a significant margin, or perhaps they just want us to think they will.  The campaign has routinely stated that they expect to fall behind in the polls once Obama clinched the nomination.  They have said that for months.  They also quickly asked for debates as soon as Obama became the likely nominee, a move that usually indicates weakness.  The Obama campaign took the bait and pointed out that McCain acknowledged his underdog status by making the debate challenge first.

The McCain campaign should, and apparently does, welcome underdog status.  All historic indicators suggest that the Democrat should run away with this race.  Everyone expects McCain to trail Obama in the polls.  Acknowledging this fact does not hurt McCain because everyone already expects it. 

If the Obama bump does not arrive, however, the liberal media will have a difficult time claiming that major problems do not exist for Obama.  By accentuating the fact that Obama should take a significant lead in public statements and by eagerly playing the role of the underdog, McCain locks the Obama domination narrative in place.  Obama must take a significant lead or panic will begin to settle in at MSNBC and the New York Times. 

The Obama campaign, on the contrary, managed the expectations game poorly by pointing out that McCain's debate challenge indicates weakness. That mistake may come back to haunt them in that they contributed to the high expectations they may not meet.  The polls will tell the tale.  All McCain has to do is keep it close and stories of "unexpected weakness" in Obama's candidacy are likely to follow.

   

The Ref | 6/7/08 | Permalink