Bush's Negatives and Supreme Court Focus Help McCain
Bush’s approval ratings have remained low for a long time. What impact does that low approval rating transmit to the Republican standard-bearer John McCain? One would assume that the president’s approval rating and the Republican candidate’s electoral chances possess a directly proportional relationship, as one descends so does the other. One assuming this, however, misses the fundamental nature of McCain’s candidacy as that of a maverick to his party.
Ideally McCain would want Bush to bring a high approval rating to the Republican convention in hopes that some of that good feeling would rub off on him. Because that will not happen, however, one must ask what scenario with respect to Bush’s popularity represents the best one for McCain’s electoral chances? Would it help if Bush’s popularity hovered in forties rather than the thirties? It would not help. In fact, the longer Bush’s approval rating remains in the low thirties the better are McCain’s chances of winning the White House. This is true because Bush’s unpopularity gives McCain the room he needs to run to the middle.
McCain has a strong claim on the middle. Obama attempts daily to label McCain as Bush’s acolyte, but the case falls on deaf ears among many of the relevant voters, specifically voters above thirty. McCain is not Bush and most politically minded people over thirty know it, although some of these voters are vulnerable to the Bush-McCain labeling tactic. McCain cemented his brand as a maverick in the national psyche in 2000 and early in Bush’s presidency. Certainly voters young enough not to remember the battle between Bush and McCain are likely open to Obama’s claims that McCain is Bush. They do not matter at this point because their choice of who to vote for has already galvanized.
Those who do not know McCain due to their young age have most likely decided to vote for Obama. Whether they will actually vote remains a question. Many of them will likely not turn out to vote as usual. Conservative youths know McCain and they also possess political opinions that Obama cannot penetrate. If a young person holds conservative political views he or she has already received innumerable arguments, and even some insults, from peers, teachers and professors designed to help them “see the light,” yet they have consistently rejected them. Young conservatives will almost certainly vote for McCain or at least against Obama.
So older voters represent the ones to target and these voters want change, although they are open as to how they define it. McCain’s showing in the polls, where he trails by about four to five percentage points despite Bush’s low approval rating and very high wrong-track numbers, demonstrates that McCain fits the bill of change for at least some voters. But how long can McCain represent change to them before the “Bush-McCain” mantra takes hold in the minds of the inattentive voters among them? McCain will need to continue to label himself a maverick to counter this.
The question becomes, therefore, how far can McCain go out on the limb as a maverick before his base abandons him? The farther out he can go the more likely it is that he can win the election. As he moves farther into the center while still maintaining his base, his voter pool grows larger. Where is the breaking point when the limb fractures and the conservative base abandons him?
Bush’s low approval rating helps answer this question. The low rating gives McCain a substantial amount of room to make his case as a maverick. If Bush’s approval hovered in the forties McCain may have already gone too far. Because the media constantly trumpets Bush’s low approval ratings, conservatives know that McCain must make an appeal to the middle. The conservative base’s deep concern for the makeup of the Supreme Court will also keep them on McCain’s side. The lower Bush’s approval rating the better it is for McCain. The McCain campaign should celebrate every mention of Bush’s unpopularity because it gives them breathing room.
The Ref | 7/8/08 | Permalink