What will Rush, Laura and Sean Say Tomorrow? 

They will analyze Super Tuesday in some variation of the following. 

Is the race over? Simply asking the question gives you a clue, at least in this instance. NO!   Romney currently has half the delegates that McCain has. McCain is only half way to the nomination.

While Huckabee had a good night, he did not have a good enough night to take second place in delegates. Huckabee also does not have the backing of many national figures. Romney has talk radio and many of the conservative columnists.

One repeatedly hears pundits predict that they cannot see a credible path to the nomination for anyone but McCain. Why? If Huckabee and Romney stick it out, McCain is going to have a difficult time getting to 1191 delegates. McCain needs Romney or Huckabee to drop out. Neither one will. The three will continue to split states until they are out of states.

Only two winner take all states remain, Virginia and Texas. Huckabee is probably the favorite in Texas and McCain will probably win Virginia. But Romney will pick off some states here and there and take a large number of delegates from the majority of states that distribute delegates by congressional district.

The pundits are right when they say Romney and Huckabee have no credible path to the nomination, but neither does McCain. It's all about persistence. When they ask the question, is the race over? They know the answer . . . only if Romney drops out.

Expect the conservative talk radio hosts to analyze Super Tuesday in the above fashion.

 

The Ref | 2/6/08 | Permalink