How the Clintons Will Win Back the Media

When one reads or listens to establishment media he or she will invariably hear some variation of the common refrain, “if Obama has a lead in elected delegates, Democratic superdelegates will not go against the will of the people by voting for Clinton.”  This argument represents the clearest manifestation of the media’s support for Obama.  The Clintons, however, view the race for delegates through a different lens. 

The Clintons have shown an undeniable penchant for relying on legalistic arguments in personal and policy matters no matter who or what their reliance on legalism threatens.  We can conclude based on their history that the Clintons will go to any lengths within the law to make their case, especially when one of their political lives is at stake. 

If the Clintons see any feasible path to the nomination they will take the requisite action necessary to secure the opening of that path.  As long as they can argue that their strategy falls within the rules the Clintons will not stop.

They view the delegate race as a race to a specific number, not an indication of the will of the Democratic electorate.  They are correct.  The delegate race only declares a winner when a candidate reaches the magic number and not before.  If the Clintons push this argument they will persuade the majority of Democrats to their viewpoint because of its truth.  Clinton backers will support that argument as will some Obama supporters, again because of its truth.

If Obama and the establishment media argue that the Clintons are threatening to win via an undemocratic process they risk blowing up the party.  Obama and many in the media will argue that the Clintons are the source of the tension, but the real source is the rules of the Democratic Party.  The Clintons will remind the people of this fact.  They will say repeatedly, “we are just following the rules.” 

Ultimately the Clintons will win that argument in the court of public opinion.  Americans are fair minded and expect contenders in any contest to play by the rules.  When the Clintons make the rules their ally they will in turn make the American people their allies on this one point.  Obama may argue that the process is undemocratic, but out of concern for the Democratic Party the media will abandon him. 

In defense of the process, and by extension the Democrats' hope for winning the White House, the media will say that the first phase of the nomination process, the primary and caucus phase, failed to select a nominee.  They will say that a second phase is needed, a superdelegate election phase, where the leaders of the party reasonably select a nominee using their best judgment.  This process will be considered fair because the elections in the states failed to yield a result. 

If the media goes the other direction and protests that the process is unfair, McCain will have an easy road to the White House as millions of Democrats refuse to support Clinton or Obama out of bitterness.  The New York Times has just demonstrated what lengths it will go to in its effort to help a Democrat win the White House.  This same strong tendency will prevent the media from siding with Obama in his argument that the process is undemocratic.  The Clintons will have won the media back. 

The Ref | 2/22/08 | Permalink