Key Obama strategy threatens his chances
Attacking McCain as another Bush is a futile strategy. It assumes that journalists will abandon their standard label for McCain, “maverick,” and if they do abandon it, that enough Americans will forget his reputation to buy the comparison to Bush. Of course many political strategies are risky, especially in the presidential stakes, but the question is whether it’s worth the risk.
There will come a time in September or October, probably in the debates, when the McCain is another Bush attack will fall flat. McCain simply has too much history as a truly independent politician. Calling McCain another Bush is like calling Hillary another Bill. In some ways it’s true but the candidate is too well known and independently established for the label to stick. The strategy assumes that mere repetition of a claim without independent verification of its truth works. Many cynical pundits believe this to be true, but it’s generally false. Some independent verification is generally required.
The media possesses in its collective mind a keen sense for stories that confirm preexisting assumptions. For example, they look for evidence that McCain is too old and will eventually look for confirmation that Obama is all style and no substance. Anything confirming these storylines ends up in a headline. The McCain is another Bush claim is not one of these latent storylines awaiting proof because of McCain’s extensive record as a maverick. While the media may try to manufacture this storyline, it is not nearly as effective at promoting a storyline in which it does not believe.
It does not seem worth the risk to make the case that McCain is merely another Bush. The risk is not so much that Americans will believe Obama is dishonest because most Americans will understand it as a plausible political strategy. Americans appreciate strategy and do not equate it immediately with dishonesty, unless such a label is indisputable. They give politicians the benefit of the doubt, or at least enough of them do to give politicians some leeway in their strategic approaches.
The risk is that Obama is wasting time on this attack when he could be focusing on something that might work, such as telling Americans why he is not a risky choice. McCain is not Bush and every time a Democrat uses this line of attack it is as if they did not speak at all. It’s a waste of time. This election is really about Obama and his time would be better spent telling us why he's not a novice rather than making an attack that will not work.
The Ref | 8/5/08 | Permalink