Ref's Call: Who is More Electable, McCain or Romney?

If one looks at the current head to head polls he or she will find that McCain beats Hillary while Romney loses to her by a substantial margin. Four reasons explain why McCain's superior performance in the head to head polls today does not translate into rendering him the superior candidate for the Republicans. 

First, name recognition gives McCain an advantage over Romney. While we political junkies like to think that most people pay close attention to politics, most do not. When Romney receives media coverage for a prolonged period of time more people will know him and his poll numbers against Democrats will naturally increase. 

Second, voter turnout, as in every election, will determine the winner. While McCain performs well among those called at home by pollsters, he must rely on fickle Independents and conservatives, who do not believe McCain shares their values, to actually turn out and elect him. Turnout represents the trickiest calculation of any pollster and one can reasonably assume that McCain, a man who straddles political groups, will poll better than his actual vote.  Hillary will have a strong core of liberals and women.  Her opponent must posses a strong core of support and McCain does not have one.

Third, superficial matters make a difference in presidential politics. Americans have not concentrated much on the candidates and when they do McCain might not stand up well to close scrutiny because of his age. When one considers the contrast between McCain and Obama he or she sees that McCain looks old and disconnected from young people. While this fact makes us uncomfortable, it nevertheless moves votes. 

Fourth, McCain admits he possesses weaknesses in an economic discussion. Romney will dominate economic debates. Iraq will likely continue to fade in importance in the fall while the economy will dominate the discussion. Romney compares favorably against Clinton and Obama on economic issues while McCain draws even at best.

Romney, although he trails in the head to head polls, likely represents a more electable candidate for Republicans for the above reasons. Republican voters in Florida and around the nation will elevate the electability question above most other issues in the coming days. Whether they consider Romney or McCain more electable will probably determine the winner. Romney, despite the current polls, represents the more electable candidate because of his age and appearance, his strength on the economy and his stronger connection with the Republican base. 

The Ref - 12:14 AM | Permalink