It's now tied

Is it surprising that the New York Times poll of Ohio shows Obama up by five in Ohio?  When you consider that it said he was up ten, of course not.  You can write that poll off as looking for a certain result, and Nate Silver knows it.  He has labeled other polls, such as the Grove poll by Project New America, which is really David Axelrod's son's poll, Ethan Axelrod, as skewing toward a more Democratic sample and therefore unreliable.  One can reasonably assume he would label the New York Times polls as equally unreliable, and probably more so, if he didn't derive a paycheck from the paper.

When looking at Mr. Silver's own listing of the Ohio polls over the last year, fifty-nine polls in Ohio have shown

Obama ahead, eleven have shown Romney ahead, and six have shown it a tie. As a percentage, Obama has lead 77% of the time, Romney 14%, and tie has resulted 8%.  So if you look at the whole year, Obama has a three in four chance of winning. 

But if you look at the last week, eleven polls have come out and it's looking like a tie.  Obama has lead in six of them by an average of 2.6%, Romney in one poll by a point, and a tie has shown up four times.  One must also consider that the New York Times relased one of those polls showign a five-point Obama lead, and that throws the averages off.  Without that poll, Obama held a  2.2% lead in the ones where he lead.  Averaging all the polls in the last week, Obama's lead is 1.4%, which is a statistical tie.  Ties go to the challenger or to the party with more enthusiasm.  Perhaps one could argue that Obama has a better ground game, but is that possible when the Republicans hold virtually every state office and have won the close ones in the past (2000 and 2004). 

Newt's inability to answer this question demonstrates that he is a defeated candidate.  He would have loved to throw out Texas, but he couldn't even win the neighboring state to Georgia.  He was running a southern and Texas strategy.  He essentially admitted that even his Texas strategy is now defunct.

There is a great article in the Mail Online today.  It makes clear that Newt really has no reason to stay in this race.  Link below:

Delusional Newt outlines his strategy to stop Mitt Romney: Sabotage at Tampa

To openly advocate for a convention fight demonstrates that Newt puts himself before his country and party.  It's not hyperbole.  It's true. One cannot make a credible argument where a convention fight helps the Republican party in its quest to defeat Obama. 

Right now, Newt Gingrich is Barack Obama's best weapon. 

Newt: I don't know yet