Ref's Best
State of the GOP nomination fight
Rick Santorum is currently running even with Romney nationally and a bit ahead in the critical Michigan primary next week. His current standing, however, is untested. We will only know Santorum's actual strength after the next couple of debates and he has sustained a few hits from Romney's (and Paul's) ad warchest. I suspect that Santorum may have a glass jaw, as did Newt. His electability seems to be his weakest point. Yes, he's running well against Obama right now, although not as good as Romney, but Americans don't know him yet. Once he's been painted as a hard right social warrior, I doubt he remains at Mitt's general election strength level, but will fall back to Newt's. As with Newt, it is women who will abandon Santorum because he will be easily painted as an old-style conservative on womens' issues. Whether that's the truth or not, it will be his label.
- Where Conservative Political Leaders Go Wrong
- Poll: Even Republicans Leaving GOP contenders for Obama
- Poll: Obama pulling ahead thanks to GOP infighting
- Some conservatives back Santorum
- Rush quasi-endorses Santorum
- More from Rush on Santorum
- Video: Palin trashes Romney and promotes Newt, who can't win, again
- There is no end to this woman's irrationality. She continues to obsess over the importance of presidential debates, when in truth these affairs rarely move voters. One unshakable fact about presidential debates exists, however, that determining the winner always boils down to managing the expectations game. Palin's unrelenting trumpeting of Gingrich's debating skill demonstrates her lack of political intelligence. One should always play down future debate performance to manage expectations, always. A more charitable view would assume that Palin knows debate is Gingrich's only strong suit because he performs disastrously in head-to-head polls, and refers to debates because that is all she can tout. The expectations game is so important in presidential debates, however, that even Palin would not constantly ramp up Gingrich's ability to destroy Obama in debate if she had ever considered the importance of managing expectations. She simply has not realized how politically incompetent it is to constantly promise massive victories in future debates. Or perhaps Palin wants the GOP to lose so she can run in 2016, when maybe the conservative base will cry for her to run, as they did not this time, which would explain perfectly her advocacy for Gingrich. He simply cannot defeat Obama. Too hypocritical (Clinton/Lewinsky, Freddie Mac), too arrogant, too hated, too unattractive. No chance Sarah.
Unemployment
Last week's numbers confirmed the trend of stronger hiring, but did not yet show that the improvments had solidified. The weekly claims for jobless benefits need to average 350,000 to signal sustained labor market strength. Last week we are 361,000 of initial jobless claims and 373,000 the week before that. This week we have had 348,000 iniital jobless claims. While this seems like good news, there has also been a virtual certainty that the initial report is too low. We will likely see the number revised up above 350,000 next week, so we should wait a week to celebrate.
| Date | Actual | Initial Report | Estimated |
| 2/16 | 348,000 | ||
| 2/9 | 361k | 358k | |
| 2/2 | 373k |
Blog Review
Wow, Kennedy was a real degenerate. Even Chris Matthews shuts up about JFK for a night
Global warming theory really is collapsing
Videos
Palin trashes Romney, promotes Newt, shows ignorance
