January 8, 2008

New Hampshire Primary Today

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Huckabee Leads by 0.7%
Huckabee 20.7
McCain
 20.0
Giuliani 19.0
Romney 12.0
Thompson 10.7
Paul 3.7
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 8.0%
Clinton 37.3
Obama 29.3
Edwards 18.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +4.9%
Obama +7.1%
South Carolina
Huckabee +13.0%
Obama +16.0%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Pro Hillary Pundits May

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4, 2008 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Recent Headlines

CARVILLE TO THE RESCUE?

CLINTON CRIES

Barack Obama - Electable Because He's Black?

Hillary Clinton - Will Fight, Fight, Fight!  But Cry a Little Too

John McCain - 10,000 Year Presence in Iraq OK

New Hampshire Primaries in General

Mike Huckabee Wants to Amend Constitution

Giuliani Still Back There, Hoping, but Blundering

 


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Boehner determined to kill Dem health care bill (AP)

House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, left, walks with Rep. Dave Camp, R-Mich., right, to a Republican caucus, Thursday, March 11, 2010, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)AP - The top House Republican says the GOP can defeat the Democratic health care bill that may reach the House floor this coming week.




AP Exclusive: Pentagon gun was from Tenn. police (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 6, 2007 file photo, Miami police chief John Timoney speaks during a news conference. Law enforcement officials say two guns used in high-profile attacks, one at the Pentagon, and another from the fatal January shooting of an officer at a Las Vegas courthouse, both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tennessee. (AP Photo/David Adame, File)AP - Two guns used in high-profile shootings this year at the Pentagon and a Las Vegas courthouse both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tenn.




House vote counter hunting for health care votes (AP)
AP - The Democrat's chief vote counter in the House says that right now there aren't enough votes to pass President Barack Obama's health care overhaul.

Moderates' demand for Obama wanes (Politico)
Politico - Some Democrats are unenthusiastic about riding the president's coattails this year.

W.H. plan to remake education law (Politico)
Politico - The plan undoes much of No Child Left Behind.

Boehner says GOP has chance of recapturing House (AP)
AP - House Republican leader John Boehner says his party has a shot at recapturing the House majority it lost to Democrats in 2006.

Social Security to start cashing Uncle Sam's IOUs (AP)
AP - The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration.

Republicans need more than opposition: Rove (Reuters)
Reuters - Karl Rove, architect of George W. Bush's two presidential election wins, says he believes Republicans need to offer more than just opposition to Democrats in the November congressional elections.

AP Source: Colo. woman held in terror probe (AP)

Swedish cartoonist Lars Vilks walks in the streets of Stockholm. A second American Muslim woman has been arrested in Ireland on charges of conspiracy to kill the cartoonist who made fun of the Prophet Mohammed, The Wall Street Journal reported.(AFP/File/Francois Campredon)AP - A U.S. official says a Colorado woman has been detained in Ireland in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate a Swedish cartoonist whose sketch offended many Muslims.




States scramble after high court election ruling (AP)

** FILE ** In this Feb. 6, 2007 file photo, Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner talks in her office in Columbus, Ohio. When the U.S. Supreme Court struck down old limits on campaign spending in January, it left states facing an election year burden: brace for a flood of new money in elections, or find new ways to rein it in. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato, file)AP - The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of decades-old campaign spending limits gives states scant time to face an election-year dilemma: brace for a flood of new money in politics, or find new ways to rein it in.




Obama delays Asia trip to deal with health care (AP)

President Barack Obama speaks at the Export-Import Bank's Annual Conference in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - President Barack Obama has delayed his visit to Asia, his first international trip of the year, to focus on the push to salvage health care legislation after a year of contentious debate.




New U.N. mission chief in Kabul after tough year (Reuters)

Wounded civilians lie in beds in a hospital after they got wounded in an explosion in Kandahar south of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, March 14, 2010 The governor of Kandahar province demanded more security around Afghanistan's largest southern city Sunday after 12 explosions killed dozens of people in the Taliban heartland that will be the target of the war's next major offensive. (AP Photo/Allauddin Khan)Reuters - A new United Nations mission chief arrived in Kabul on Saturday to take up his post after a difficult year that saw the mission divided over election fraud and forced to cut back staff after a deadly attack.




Serbian police detain 9 over alleged war crimes (AP)
AP - Serbian police have detained nine former paramilitary fighters suspected of killing civilians and looting homes during the Kosovo war, a war crimes prosecutor said Saturday.

Rove: Obama ‘aloof and disengaged’ (Politico)
Politico - Karl Rove said Sunday that President Barack Obama has been too "disengaged" from the health care reform process.

Agency places shotgun order: FBI? No, Education Department (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — Schools may be gun-free zones, but the U.S. Department of Education is locked and loaded.

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