January 7, 2008

1 Day to the New Hampshire Primary

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Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani 20.4
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.4
Romney 13.4
Thompson 11.4
Paul 3.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.8
Edwards 14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +5.4%
Obama +4.8%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4, 2008 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

HILLARY ON THE ATTACK - ROMNEY UNDER SIEGE

Republican New Hampshire Debates

Democratic Debate

Hillary

Obama

McCain

Romney

Giuliani

Huckabee

Iowa Postmortem

International

Turnout

New Hampshire Primaries

John Edwards


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Obama heads to Ohio looking for health care votes (AP)

U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington, May 21, 2009. REUTERS/Larry Downing/FilesAP - With a fresh sense of urgency, President Barack Obama and congressional Democratic leaders pressed wavering rank-and-file lawmakers to back his health care overhaul, determined to give the party something to show voters in the midterm elections.




Official: Pentagon probing alleged spy operation (AP)

A US official identified as Michael Furlong organized a network of private contractors in Afghanistan and Pakistan with the purpose of finding and killing suspected Islamic militants, The New York Times has reported.(AFP/File/Paul J. Richards)AP - A Defense Department official is under investigation for allegedly hiring private contractors to gather intelligence on suspected insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a U.S. official said Monday.




Gov't says it cannot explain runaway Toyota (AP)

FILE - In this Tuesday, March 9, 2010 file photo, driver James Sikes talks about his experiences in his Toyota Prius during a news conference held at Toyota of El Cajon in El Cajon, Calif. A law firm for the driver who says his Toyota Prius sped out of control in California doesn't plan to sue the Japanese automaker. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy, File)AP - The federal government said Monday it cannot explain a reported incident of sudden, high-speed acceleration in a Toyota Prius on a San Diego freeway and acknowledged it may not be able to solve the mystery of what happened to the hybrid.




Barclay clears way for Hoffman (Politico)
Politico - The former Conservative Party candidate is now the GOP's main prospect to take on Owens in N.Y.

GOP surges, but storm could fade (Politico)
Politico - In an Ideas piece, Davis says Democrats will build a much taller wall than in 1994.

Dodd seeks difficult consensus on financial rules (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 10, 2009, file photo Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., announces a financial reform package during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington. Dodd is expected to unveil a new sweeping regulatory proposal Monday, March 15, 2010, that will abandon his initial plan for a stand-alone consumer financial protection agency and for a single powerful regulator to oversee all of the nation's banks. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)AP - Combining Obama administration and Republican priorities, the leading Senate author of a sweeping rewrite of the nation's financial regulations is looking for consensus with a proposal that neither side of the political spectrum is ready to embrace.




US census forms arrive in the mail: What to expect (AP)

FILE - In this Jan. 25, 2010 file photo, U.S. Census Bureau Director Robert Groves arrives in the remote Inupiat Eskimo village Noorvik, Alaska in a dogsled driven by Noorvik resident Brian Coffin, 11, to formally launch the nation's 2010 count. More than 120 million U.S. census forms begin arriving Monday, March 15, 2010, in mailboxes around the country, in the government's once-a-decade population count that will be used to divvy up congressional seats and more than $400 billion in federal aid. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)AP - Let the count begin.




Sen. Harry Reid's wife released from hospital (AP)

Democratic party lawmakers (L-R) House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) confer during a bipartisan health reform summit with U.S. President Barack Obama and lawmakers at Blair House in Washington, February 25, 2010. REUTERS/Jason ReedAP - Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's wife has been released from a Virginia hospital, where she was taken after being seriously injured in a traffic accident.




Common problems when filling out US census forms (AP)
AP - Some common problems when filling out U.S. census forms, which arrive by mail beginning Monday:

White House stands ground on high court criticism (AP)

David Axelrod, Senior White House Adviser, appears on AP - The White House on Sunday defended President Barack Obama's scathing criticism of a Supreme Court decision that allows unions and corporations to funnel unlimited dollars to political campaigns.




Obama, Medvedev encouraged on arms talks accord (AP)

President Barack Obama walks out of the Jane E. Lawton Community Recreation Center in Chevy Chase, Md., Saturday, March 13, 2010, after ha Obama and the first lady attended their daughter Sasha's basketball game. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)AP - President Barack Obama on Saturday had what the White House described as an "encouraging" phone conversation with Russian President Dmitrty Medvedev as the two countries sought to work out the remaining issues on a treaty to significantly reduce nuclear arsenals.




U.N. chief urges donors to keep Haiti funds flowing (Reuters)
Reuters - U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon vowed on Sunday to work to keep donor funds flowing for Haiti's recovery and reconstruction following the devastating January earthquake in the poor Caribbean state.

Pope to be 'clear and decisive' in Irish letter (AP)
AP - A top Vatican official says Pope Benedict XVI will speak with a "clear and decisive voice" when he addresses clerical sex abuses in Ireland in a forthcoming letter.

Obama outraged by consulate killings in Mexico (AFP)

A Mexican soldier patrols the scene where three US Consulate staffers were killed in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico on March 13. US President Barack Obama said he was AFP - Suspected drug gang "hit teams" killed two Americans and a Mexican linked to a US consulate in coordinated shootings that marked an ominous turn in Mexico's drug war.




Obama's health care legacy hangs on power of Clyburn's persuasion (McClatchy Newspapers)

House Majority Whip James Clyburn of S.C., left, Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., center, and others leave the White House in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010, after the Congressional Black Caucus met with President Barack Obama. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — The looming vote for final passage of the historic health-care bill is the stiffest challenge House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn has faced in his three-plus years as the lawmaker responsible for counting heads and ensuring passage of major legislation.




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