January 6, 2008

2 Days to the New Hampshire Primary

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Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani 20.4
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.4
Romney 13.4
Thompson 11.4
Paul 3.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.8
Edwards 14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +5.4%
IObama +2.2%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4, 2008 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

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Huckabee

Iowa Postmortem

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New Hampshire Primaries

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Yahoo! News: Politics News

Tea Party Express hopes to repeat Alaska win in Delaware Senate primary (The Upshot)
The Upshot - Buoyed by Joe Miller's surprise win in Alaska's Senate GOP primary, the Tea Party Express is hoping to take down another heavily favored Republican incumbent, this time in Delaware. The group plans to spend $250,000 on radio and TV ads to boost Christine O'Donnell, a largely unknown conservative activist who is vying against longtime GOP [...]

Ariz. governor says she was wrong about beheadings (AP)

Republican Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer waits for a televised Arizona gubernatorial debate to begin Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2010 in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)AP - Gov. Jan Brewer rose to national fame defending the state's immigration law and warning of rising violence along the U.S.-Mexico border, including a claim that headless bodies were turning up in the Arizona desert.




Obama to address new economic ideas next Wednesday (Reuters)

President Barack Obama delivers remarks on the latest employment statistics released on Friday, alongside Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in the Rose Garden of the White House, September 3, 2010. REUTERS/Jason ReedReuters - President Barack Obama said on Friday he would outline new measures next week to boost the U.S. economy, but analysts were skeptical he would be able to deliver a big enough package to lift growth significantly.




Why Are the Feds Suing Brash Arizona Sheriff? (The Atlantic Wire)

As he attends an unrelated news conference, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio hands back to one of his deputies an Associated Press news report stating the U.S. Justice Department is suing Arpaio saying the Arizona lawman refused for more than a year to turn over records in an investigation into allegations his department discriminates against Hispanics, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)The Atlantic Wire -




Clinton: Time is now for Mideast peace (AP)

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas looks on as she hosted the re-launch of direct negotiations, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010, at the State Department in Washington\. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sought to inject urgency into Israeli-Palestinian peace talks Friday, warning the negotiations may be "the last chance for a very long time" to reach an agreement.




Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer at a loss for words in first debate (The Upshot)
The Upshot - It's a politician's worst nightmare: Drawing a complete blank in a high-profile debate. That's what happened to Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, who lost her train of thought during her opening statement during her first televised debate with her Democratic challenger, state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Brewer was in the middle of talking up her [...]

More Dems buck plan to let taxes increase for rich (AP)

FILE - In this Aug. 25, 2009 file photo, Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., conducts a town hall event in Springfield, Va. Chances are fading that Congress will allow taxes to rise, even for the nation's top earners. Worried about the fragile economy and their own upcoming election, a growing number of Democrats are joining the rock-solid Republican opposition to President Barack Obama's plans to let some of the Bush administration's tax cuts expire. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File)AP - Congress seems increasingly reluctant to let taxes go up, even on wealthier Americans.




Feingold to skip Obama rally in Wisconsin (The Upshot)
The Upshot - President Obama heads to Milwaukee  onMonday, where he'll mark Labor Day at a statewide union event with other local Democratic candidates — except for one. Sen. Russ Feingold, who is facing a tougher-than-expected re-election campaign, is too busy to meet up with Obama this weekend. It's the second time this summer that Feingold has dodged [...]

Dems have few options on economy (Politico)
Politico - Democrats desperate for quick policy action to boost the economy face an excruciating dilemma.

Ariz. rematch hinges on nat'l party (Politico)
Politico - The fight over Arizona's 5th District is shaping up as one of the toughest holds for Democrats.

What now for Gulf? Fire complicates drill debate (AP)

Boats are seen spraying water on an oil and gas platform that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Louisiana., Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010. All 13 crew members were rescued. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - What now for the Gulf? News of another oil rig fire in the Gulf of Mexico, so soon after the BP oil spill, has set off a wave of anxiety along the Gulf Coast and prompted calls for the government to extend its six-month ban on deepwater drilling.




Marine general says Taliban drug trade faltering (AP)
AP - The Taliban is confronting a serious "cash flow" problem after losing some half of its annual drug trade money to a farming blight and government eradication efforts, a Marine two-star general said Thursday.

Bosnian police track down suspected puppy killer (AP)
AP - Police in Bosnia say they believe they have located a young woman shown in a video throwing puppies into a river.

Obama unpopular ahead of midterms: Will the GOP benefit? (Time.com)

President Barack Obama delivers remarks on the latest employment statistics released on Friday, alongside Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in the Rose Garden of the White House, September 3, 2010. REUTERS/Jason ReedTime.com - Nine weeks before the midterm elections, Barack Obama finds himself on the wrong side of the polls. Where did all that adoration go -- and is a Republican sweep next?




Is the GOP ready for prime time? (The Week)
The Week - All signs point to big Republican gains in November, enabling the GOP to implement its agenda. But what agenda is that?

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