January 6, 2008

2 Days to the New Hampshire Primary

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Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani 20.4
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.4
Romney 13.4
Thompson 11.4
Paul 3.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.8
Edwards 14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +5.4%
IObama +2.2%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4, 2008 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

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Huckabee

Iowa Postmortem

International

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New Hampshire Primaries

John Edwards


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Catholic hospitals support health care bill (AP)

Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., right, accompanied by Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., gestures during a health care news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)AP - A group representing Catholic hospitals Saturday rallied behind President Barack Obama's health care bill ahead of a House vote in which anti-abortion lawmakers could play a decisive role.




Senate, Obama spar over health plan's pet projects (AP)

Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin of Ill., left, looks on as Gina Owens hugs her grandson, Marcelas Owens from Seattle, Wash., whose mother, Tiffany Owens died after losing her job and health care, Thursday, March 11, 2010, during a health care news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)AP - President Barack Obama says he wants projects helping specific states yanked from the health care bill Congress is writing. Democratic senators, being senators, beg to differ.




Obama promise: Focus on getting kids to college (AP)

U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan listens to students, teachers and former students about their educational experience as he visits Robert E. Lee High School in Montgomery, Ala., during brief stops at schools in Montgomery and Selma, Ala., Monday, March 8, 2010. (AP Photo/Montgomery Advertiser, David Bundy)AP - President Barack Obama is promising parents and their kids that with his administration's help they will have better teachers in improved schools so U.S. students can make up for academic ground lost against youngsters in other countries.




Obama to unveil education plan (Politico)
Politico - The blueprint he is sending to Congress will flesh out details of his plan.

A POLITICO survey: The tea party's least favorite Republicans (Politico)
Politico - A survey of grass-roots tea party leaders cites John McCain as the largest GOP disappointment.

Pelosi: Confident House will pass health care bill (AP)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaks during a news conference Saturday March 13, 2010, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)AP - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Saturday she's confident the House will pass health care legislation and dismissed Republican criticism that she did not have enough votes for the measure.




US mom: Daughter held in Ireland 'lost her mind' (AP)

Christine Mott, 58, cries as she talks about her daughter Jamie Paulin-Ramirez, 31, at her home in Leadville, Colo., on Saturday, March 13, 2010. Paulin-Ramirez was the second American arrested in a plot to kill the Swedish cartoonist Lars Vilks over a 2007 sketch depicting the head of the Prophet Muhammad on a dog's body. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)AP - Before her daughter disappeared last fall, Christina Mott recalls that the 31-year-old who had been held in connection with an alleged assassination plot announced she had converted to Islam and told them they'd go to hell if they didn't follow in her steps.




Despite brashness, Bunning a hero back home in Ky. (AP)
AP - Irascible Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning has been a pariah among his congressional colleagues. Back in the conservative swath of northern Kentucky he calls home, though, he's being heralded as a hero.

It's time to spring forward again (AP)
AP - Good evening sunshine, America says hello, you light up our evenings, we light charcoal below.

States scramble after high court election ruling (AP)

** FILE ** In this Feb. 6, 2007 file photo, Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner talks in her office in Columbus, Ohio. When the U.S. Supreme Court struck down old limits on campaign spending in January, it left states facing an election year burden: brace for a flood of new money in elections, or find new ways to rein it in. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato, file)AP - The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of decades-old campaign spending limits gives states scant time to face an election-year dilemma: brace for a flood of new money in politics, or find new ways to rein it in.




US gov't knew about NJ man before Yemen arrest (AP)
AP - A law enforcement official says the U.S. government knew about the New Jersey man charged in Yemen with being a member of al-Qaida, even before Yemeni officials arrested him.

Serbian police detain 9 over alleged war crimes (AP)
AP - Serbian police have detained nine former paramilitary fighters suspected of killing civilians and looting homes during the Kosovo war, a war crimes prosecutor said Saturday.

Port Authority, developer continue WTC talks (AP)

James Nolan, a construction worker and 9/11 first responder, stands outside the construction site where he is currently working Friday, March 12, 2010, in New York. Nolan, one of thousands of ground zero workers who claim to have been sickened by dust and debris from the World Trade Center, will have 90 days to decide whether to accept a settlement worth up to $657.5 million. (AP Photo/David Goldman)AP - Both sides negotiating a new completion plan for the World Trade Center site say they're continuing to talk despite a deadline.




New Sen. Brown bashes Obama's 'bitter' health push (AP)

Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee member Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., questions witnesses during a hearing on intelligence reform and the lessons of the Christmas Day attack - watch listing and pre-screening, Wednesday, March 10, 2010, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)AP - Newly arrived Republican Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts accused President Barack Obama and Democrats on Saturday of a "bitter, destructive and endless" drive to pass health overhaul legislation that Brown warned would be disastrous.




Agency places shotgun order: FBI? No, Education Department (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — Schools may be gun-free zones, but the U.S. Department of Education is locked and loaded.

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