HILLARY FALLS BEHIND IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, ATTACKS OBAMA
	Mitt Romney Wins Wyoming Republican Caucuses Clinton Trails by Ten Points in Rasmussen Reports N.H. Poll HIILL LAUNCHES BARACK ATTACK - RIPS FOE'S EXPERIENCE AS LEAD SLIPS Hillary Confronts Campaign Crisis Change on the Move: New Hampshire decided Obama, not Clinton, is the change candidate Bill Clinton Calls On NH to Make 'Independent Judgment' Clinton, Obama Draw Distinct Maps for Road to White House for Party Activists Obama carries 'change' to N.H.

Most Interesting Political News, Thorough Daily Poll Averages and Daily Political Editorials and Blogs

• HOME
• ABOUT
• VIDEOS
• WIRES
• POLL CENTER
• RSS
• CONTACT
• ARCHIVES
• SHARE

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani	20.4
Huckabee	18.0
McCain	17.4
Romney	13.4
Thompson	11.4
Paul	3.8
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton	45.0
Obama	24.8
Edwards	14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +5.0%
Clinton +2.0%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
See All Available State Polls
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
(Not In Order of Most Likely)
Clinton	48.5
Giuliani	45.5
Clinton	47.0
Thompson	42.0
Clinton	45.0
McCain	48.5
Clinton	49.8
Romney	44.3
Clinton	51.3
Huckabee	42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4 

• See Previous Calls

Thanks to FreeFind for providing the search technology for this website.  

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

War Fades, Economy Comes to Forefront

• War? What war? Economy trumps Iraq in US election
• Reuters | January 5, 2008
• Bush Notes Economic Concerns, Says Markets 'Strong and Solid'
• Fox News | January 4, 2008

John Zogby Predicts Iowa Successfully

• Zogby Nailed Iowa
• Newsmax | January 5, 2008

What do African-Americans' Think of Obama's Victory?

• Daring to Believe, Blacks Savor Obama Victory
• New York Times | January 5, 2008

Romney's Message

• Romney Rolls Out Change Message, Too
• New York Times | January 5, 2008

Yahoo! News: Politics News Tea Party Express hopes to repeat Alaska win in Delaware Senate primary (The Upshot) The Upshot - Buoyed by Joe Miller's surprise win in Alaska's Senate GOP primary, the Tea Party Express is hoping to take down another heavily favored Republican incumbent, this time in Delaware. The group plans to spend $250,000 on radio and TV ads to boost Christine O'Donnell, a largely unknown conservative activist who is vying against longtime GOP [...] Ariz. governor says she was wrong about beheadings (AP) AP - Gov. Jan Brewer rose to national fame defending the state's immigration law and warning of rising violence along the U.S.-Mexico border, including a claim that headless bodies were turning up in the Arizona desert. Obama to address new economic ideas next Wednesday (Reuters) Reuters - President Barack Obama said on Friday he would outline new measures next week to boost the U.S. economy, but analysts were skeptical he would be able to deliver a big enough package to lift growth significantly. Why Are the Feds Suing Brash Arizona Sheriff? (The Atlantic Wire) The Atlantic Wire - Clinton: Time is now for Mideast peace (AP) AP - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sought to inject urgency into Israeli-Palestinian peace talks Friday, warning the negotiations may be "the last chance for a very long time" to reach an agreement. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer at a loss for words in first debate (The Upshot) The Upshot - It's a politician's worst nightmare: Drawing a complete blank in a high-profile debate. That's what happened to Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, who lost her train of thought during her opening statement during her first televised debate with her Democratic challenger, state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Brewer was in the middle of talking up her [...] More Dems buck plan to let taxes increase for rich (AP) AP - Congress seems increasingly reluctant to let taxes go up, even on wealthier Americans. Feingold to skip Obama rally in Wisconsin (The Upshot) The Upshot - President Obama heads to Milwaukee  onMonday, where he'll mark Labor Day at a statewide union event with other local Democratic candidates — except for one. Sen. Russ Feingold, who is facing a tougher-than-expected re-election campaign, is too busy to meet up with Obama this weekend. It's the second time this summer that Feingold has dodged [...] Dems have few options on economy (Politico) Politico - Democrats desperate for quick policy action to boost the economy face an excruciating dilemma. Ariz. rematch hinges on nat'l party (Politico) Politico - The fight over Arizona's 5th District is shaping up as one of the toughest holds for Democrats. What now for Gulf? Fire complicates drill debate (AP) AP - What now for the Gulf? News of another oil rig fire in the Gulf of Mexico, so soon after the BP oil spill, has set off a wave of anxiety along the Gulf Coast and prompted calls for the government to extend its six-month ban on deepwater drilling. Marine general says Taliban drug trade faltering (AP) AP - The Taliban is confronting a serious "cash flow" problem after losing some half of its annual drug trade money to a farming blight and government eradication efforts, a Marine two-star general said Thursday. Bosnian police track down suspected puppy killer (AP) AP - Police in Bosnia say they believe they have located a young woman shown in a video throwing puppies into a river. Obama unpopular ahead of midterms: Will the GOP benefit? (Time.com) Time.com - Nine weeks before the midterm elections, Barack Obama finds himself on the wrong side of the polls. Where did all that adoration go -- and is a Republican sweep next? Is the GOP ready for prime time? (The Week) The Week - All signs point to big Republican gains in November, enabling the GOP to implement its agenda. But what agenda is that? RSS Feed Reader Increased Web Site Traffic

About the Ref - Latest Videos - Political Wires - Poll Center - RSS - Contact the Ref - Archives - The Ref's Calls