• HOME
• ABOUT
• VIDEOS
• WIRES
• POLL CENTER
• RSS
• CONTACT
• ARCHIVES
• SHARE

powered by FreeFind

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani	20.4
Huckabee	18.0
McCain	17.4
Romney	13.4
Thompson	11.4
Paul	3.8
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton	45.0
Obama	24.8
Edwards	14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
Romney +1.2%
Clinton +6.0%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
See All Available State Polls
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
(Not In Order of Most Likely)
Clinton	48.5
Giuliani	45.5
Clinton	47.0
Thompson	42.0
Clinton	45.0
McCain	48.5
Clinton	49.8
Romney	44.3
Clinton	51.3
Huckabee	42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4 

HUGE STAKES: Tonight Hillary could Win the Nomination, Could be Edwards' Last Stand or Obama's Takeoff

No candidate has spent more time in Iowa than John Edwards. If he finishes third place tonight it will hurt him, and probably end his legitimate chances of winning the nomination, even if it is only by a few points. 

Simply put, if Edwards loses it will not be for lack of exposure in the state, but because his candidacy has been rejected. Edwards performs better in Iowa polls than in any other state. If he loses in Iowa he cannot win anywhere. 

If Edwards realizes that he is finished he may very well drop out. If he does then the anti-Hillary vote will no longer be split. Obama will become the only legitimate alternative. Hillary's double-digit leads in most Super Tuesday states could disappear overnight. 

Perhaps Hillary will make it worth Edwards's while to remain in the race. Perhaps she might offer Edwards the VP nomination if he remains in the race to split the anti-Hillary vote, off the record of course. 

Tonight, therefore, means a great deal. It could determine whether Hillary has a legitimate challenger in every state in Obama if he is not forced to compete with Edwards or perhaps the identity of our next Vice President.

Of course if Hillary wins, as the Ref's averages suggest that she might, Hillary ends both Obama's and Edwards's legitimate chances for the nomination and effectively becomes the nominee. The Ref - Jan. 3  

Huckabee Must Win Tonight

Huckabee is challenging in Iowa and South Carolina.  Huckabee has no chance in New Hampshire.  If Huckabee loses Iowa the best Huckabee could hope for is winning one of the first three.

But if Huckabee loses tonight the opposition to his candidacy by the conservative media will probably finish off his hopes in South Carolina too.  No other Republican candidate faces such strong opposition by the conservative media. 

Huckabee is under siege and simply cannot afford to suffer a chink in his armor. Huckabee must win tonight to keep the train rolling.  The Ref - Jan. 3 

Obama's Best Allies?  Romney Victories          

According to the polls in most states but Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the Democratic Party has firmly set sail for Clinton country. Obama may pull off the early upsets but the wins may amount to nothing more than a strong headwind that ultimately does not matter.

Whether Obama can turn the ship depends entirely on the degree of impact of the early wins. If he wins only Iowa the Clinton momentum will not be stopped. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire it gets interesting. If he then takes South Carolina maybe the massive leads Hillary holds in most states will be diminished and the tide will begin to shift.

Like any resistance a ship faces Obama needs the counter wind to be as strong and last as long as possible to shift the course of the Democratic Party.  The problem for Obama is that he is facing a strongly entrenched opposition, or to torture the analogy a bit more, a massive ocean liner full of wealthy Hillary supporters, and more importantly, women. 

Identity politics has long played an important role in Democratic races. It may be the case that Obama simply cannot persuade enough women that they should vote against their gender. 

Considering that the early states are voting in a compressed time period winning those contests may amount to merely a footnote this time around. External factors will play a more significant role in determining Obama's fate, specifically the media and Republican race. 

If Romney and Huckabee split the early states the interest those contests engender will likely prevent Obama from creating the perfect media storm he needs. If Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Obama can do the same, Obama will be the bigger story and he will get wall to wall coverage.  No other Republican candidate can win all three contests. 

So if one wants Obama to win the Democratic nomination, he or she might want to root for Romney.  The Ref - Jan. 1 

• See Previous Calls

Thanks to FreeFind for providing the search technology for this website.  

 

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Iowa Caucus Results

REPUBLICAN CAUCUSES
Candidate	%
Huckabee	34
Romney	25
Thompson	13
McCain	13
Paul	10
Giuliani	4
95% Reporting
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES
Candidate	%
Obama	38
Edwards	30
Clinton	29
100% Reporting

Ref's Final Poll Averages for Iowa

How Much Impact Will Iowa Have?

• Clinton Unbowed by Third-Place Finish
• AP | January 3, 2008
• Iowa Caucus Shaping NH Polls 'Round the Clock
• CNSNews.com | January 3, 2008
• Edwards Vows Vigorous Campaign Vs Obama
• AP | January 3, 2008

Thompson Pulling Out?  Not According to Thompson Campaign

• Thompson Camp Denies Pullout from Campaign
• CNSNews.com | January 3, 2008

Yahoo! News: Politics News Tea Party Express hopes to repeat Alaska win in Delaware Senate primary (The Upshot) The Upshot - Buoyed by Joe Miller's surprise win in Alaska's Senate GOP primary, the Tea Party Express is hoping to take down another heavily favored Republican incumbent, this time in Delaware. The group plans to spend $250,000 on radio and TV ads to boost Christine O'Donnell, a largely unknown conservative activist who is vying against longtime GOP [...] Ariz. governor says she was wrong about beheadings (AP) AP - Gov. Jan Brewer rose to national fame defending the state's immigration law and warning of rising violence along the U.S.-Mexico border, including a claim that headless bodies were turning up in the Arizona desert. Obama to address new economic ideas next Wednesday (Reuters) Reuters - President Barack Obama said on Friday he would outline new measures next week to boost the U.S. economy, but analysts were skeptical he would be able to deliver a big enough package to lift growth significantly. Why Are the Feds Suing Brash Arizona Sheriff? (The Atlantic Wire) The Atlantic Wire - Clinton: Time is now for Mideast peace (AP) AP - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sought to inject urgency into Israeli-Palestinian peace talks Friday, warning the negotiations may be "the last chance for a very long time" to reach an agreement. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer at a loss for words in first debate (The Upshot) The Upshot - It's a politician's worst nightmare: Drawing a complete blank in a high-profile debate. That's what happened to Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, who lost her train of thought during her opening statement during her first televised debate with her Democratic challenger, state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Brewer was in the middle of talking up her [...] More Dems buck plan to let taxes increase for rich (AP) AP - Congress seems increasingly reluctant to let taxes go up, even on wealthier Americans. Feingold to skip Obama rally in Wisconsin (The Upshot) The Upshot - President Obama heads to Milwaukee  onMonday, where he'll mark Labor Day at a statewide union event with other local Democratic candidates — except for one. Sen. Russ Feingold, who is facing a tougher-than-expected re-election campaign, is too busy to meet up with Obama this weekend. It's the second time this summer that Feingold has dodged [...] Dems have few options on economy (Politico) Politico - Democrats desperate for quick policy action to boost the economy face an excruciating dilemma. Ariz. rematch hinges on nat'l party (Politico) Politico - The fight over Arizona's 5th District is shaping up as one of the toughest holds for Democrats. What now for Gulf? Fire complicates drill debate (AP) AP - What now for the Gulf? News of another oil rig fire in the Gulf of Mexico, so soon after the BP oil spill, has set off a wave of anxiety along the Gulf Coast and prompted calls for the government to extend its six-month ban on deepwater drilling. Marine general says Taliban drug trade faltering (AP) AP - The Taliban is confronting a serious "cash flow" problem after losing some half of its annual drug trade money to a farming blight and government eradication efforts, a Marine two-star general said Thursday. Bosnian police track down suspected puppy killer (AP) AP - Police in Bosnia say they believe they have located a young woman shown in a video throwing puppies into a river. Obama unpopular ahead of midterms: Will the GOP benefit? (Time.com) Time.com - Nine weeks before the midterm elections, Barack Obama finds himself on the wrong side of the polls. Where did all that adoration go -- and is a Republican sweep next? Is the GOP ready for prime time? (The Week) The Week - All signs point to big Republican gains in November, enabling the GOP to implement its agenda. But what agenda is that? RSS to HTML Increase Web Traffic

 

About the Ref - Latest Videos - Political Wires - Poll Center - RSS - Contact the Ref - Archives - The Ref's Calls