January 3, 2008

2 Days to Wyoming Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.2%
Giuliani 20.2
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.2
Romney 13.6
Thompson 11.4
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 21.2%
Clinton 45.6
Obama 24.4
Edwards 13.8
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +2.0%
Clinton +2.0%
New Hampshire
Romney +0.8%
Clinton +5.4%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4 

HUGE STAKES: Tonight Hillary could Win the Nomination, Could be Edwards' Last Stand or Obama's Takeoff

No candidate has spent more time in Iowa than John Edwards. If he finishes third place tonight it will hurt him, and probably end his legitimate chances of winning the nomination, even if it is only by a few points. 

Simply put, if Edwards loses it will not be for lack of exposure in the state, but because his candidacy has been rejected. Edwards performs better in Iowa polls than in any other state. If he loses in Iowa he cannot win anywhere. 

If Edwards realizes that he is finished he may very well drop out. If he does then the anti-Hillary vote will no longer be split. Obama will become the only legitimate alternative. Hillary's double-digit leads in most Super Tuesday states could disappear overnight. 

Perhaps Hillary will make it worth Edwards's while to remain in the race. Perhaps she might offer Edwards the VP nomination if he remains in the race to split the anti-Hillary vote, off the record of course. 

Tonight, therefore, means a great deal. It could determine whether Hillary has a legitimate challenger in every state in Obama if he is not forced to compete with Edwards or perhaps the identity of our next Vice President.

Of course if Hillary wins, as the Ref's averages suggest that she might, Hillary ends both Obama's and Edwards's legitimate chances for the nomination and effectively becomes the nominee. The Ref - Jan. 3  

Huckabee Must Win Tonight

Huckabee is challenging in Iowa and South Carolina.  Huckabee has no chance in New Hampshire.  If Huckabee loses Iowa the best Huckabee could hope for is winning one of the first three.

But if Huckabee loses tonight the opposition to his candidacy by the conservative media will probably finish off his hopes in South Carolina too.  No other Republican candidate faces such strong opposition by the conservative media. 

Huckabee is under siege and simply cannot afford to suffer a chink in his armor. Huckabee must win tonight to keep the train rolling.  The Ref - Jan. 3 

Obama's Best Allies?  Romney Victories          

According to the polls in most states but Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the Democratic Party has firmly set sail for Clinton country. Obama may pull off the early upsets but the wins may amount to nothing more than a strong headwind that ultimately does not matter.

Whether Obama can turn the ship depends entirely on the degree of impact of the early wins. If he wins only Iowa the Clinton momentum will not be stopped. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire it gets interesting. If he then takes South Carolina maybe the massive leads Hillary holds in most states will be diminished and the tide will begin to shift.

Like any resistance a ship faces Obama needs the counter wind to be as strong and last as long as possible to shift the course of the Democratic Party.  The problem for Obama is that he is facing a strongly entrenched opposition, or to torture the analogy a bit more, a massive ocean liner full of wealthy Hillary supporters, and more importantly, women. 

Identity politics has long played an important role in Democratic races. It may be the case that Obama simply cannot persuade enough women that they should vote against their gender. 

Considering that the early states are voting in a compressed time period winning those contests may amount to merely a footnote this time around. External factors will play a more significant role in determining Obama's fate, specifically the media and Republican race. 

If Romney and Huckabee split the early states the interest those contests engender will likely prevent Obama from creating the perfect media storm he needs. If Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Obama can do the same, Obama will be the bigger story and he will get wall to wall coverage.  No other Republican candidate can win all three contests. 

So if one wants Obama to win the Democratic nomination, he or she might want to root for Romney.  The Ref - Jan. 1 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

How Much Impact Will Iowa Have?

Thompson Pulling Out?  Not According to Thompson Campaign


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Democrats, White House close in on health bill (AP)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks about healthcare reform at her weekly news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 4, 2010. REUTERS/Jose Luis MaganaAP - House Democratic leaders on Thursday worked to rally their rank-and-file members around last-minute agreements on insurance taxes and prescription drug coverage that could move President Barack Obama's overhaul of the nation's health care system a step closer to reality.




Toyota troubles put spotlight on US safety agency (AP)

Toyota Prius vehicles are seen for sale Wednesday, March 10, 2010, in Hayward, Calif. The government sent investigators Tuesday to examine a Prius that sped out of control on a California freeway, and Toyota said it wanted to interview the driver as the besieged automaker dealt with a high-profile new headache that raised questions about the safety of its beloved hybrid. A day after state troopers helped the car slow to a stop and its driver to emerge unharmed, Toyota could shed no new light on what might have gone wrong. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)AP - Toyota's massive recalls are prompting Congress to reconsider whether the nation's auto safety agency has lived up to its mission of protecting motorists.




House votes to impeach US judge from Louisiana (AP)
AP - The House has voted to impeach a federal judge from Louisiana. A House Judiciary Committee task force charged District Judge G. Thomas Porteous Jr. with a long-standing pattern of corruption.

Dodd goes on without GOP support (Politico)
Politico - But he says talks with Sen. Bob Corker continue.

CBC: Obama not listening (Politico)
Politico - Tensions are rising as the caucus tries to stem the high unemployment rate among African-Americans.

Dodd to offer his own financial regulation bill (AP)

Tourists sunbath on a terrace in the Oia village on Santorini island. While the rest of the industry eyes an upturn after a 2009 depressed by the global economic turmoil, Greek officials fear another year in crisis for its all-important tourism sector.(AFP/File/Louisa Gouliamaki)AP - WASHINGTON AP) — Unable to muster bipartisan agreement on key banking provisions, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Thursday he will offer his own version of a sweeping overhaul of financial regulations without Republican support.




GOP wants Massa ethics probe reopened (AP)

FILE - This Tuesday Oct. 14, 2008 file photo shows Eric Massa, Democratic candidate for New York's 29th Congressional District in Rochester, N.Y. One is a former Democratic freshman who was little known outside his Corning-Olean-Pittsford, N.Y. district. The other, a 20-term Democratic kingpin from Harlem, known to New Yorkers and anyone following tax bills. But now, Republicans — looking for any opening to regain control of the House — are portraying newly resigned first-termer Eric Massa and veteran Charles Rangel as dual symbols of Democratic ethical misconduct. (AP Photo/David Duprey, File)AP - House Minority Leader John Boehner said Thursday he wants the ethics panel probe of former Rep. Eric Massa reopened to find out what Democratic leaders and their staff knew about the allegations.




House GOP adopts earmark moratorium (AP)
AP - Republicans seeking to regain control of the House say they will stop stuffing spending bills with pet projects for their districts.

'Little Billy's Letters' at a glance (AP)
AP - Excerpts from the responses by prominent figures to letters from "Little Billy," the grade-schooler alter ego of prankster Bill Geerhart, appearing in the book "Little Billy's Letters":

Wis. high court sides with dealer in Volvo dispute (AP)
AP - The Wisconsin Supreme Court has sided with a truck dealership in a dispute with a major manufacturer of semitrailers.

US military deaths in Iraq war at 4,382 (AP)
AP - As of Tuesday, March 9, 2010, at least 4,382 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

UK man plans round-the-world trip in rotorcraft (AP)

Norman Surplus from Larne, Northern Ireland, waves to the media from his autogyro at Duxford, England, Thursday, March, 11, 2010. Surplus is to attempt a circumnavigation of the globe in the autogyro, starting from Larne on March 18, depending on the weather. With its open cockpit it will be flying through 26 countries, 27,000 miles including 4,300 miles over water, in an expedition that will raise awareness and money for bowel cancer. The specially adapted machine will have collapsible fuel tanks that will give it a range of some 900 miles. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)AP - A U.K. man says he plans to make the first round-the-world trip in a customized rotorcraft known as an autogyro.




UN wildlife watchdog considers ban on bluefin tuna (AP)

In this Jan. 12, 2010 photo, a man slices a piece of a frozen tuna purchased in the morning auction at Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo, Japan. A U.N. body best known for protecting tigers and elephants will focus on the world's overfished oceans beginning this week with proposals to regulate the shark trade and ban the export of a tuna species prized by sushi lovers. Japan, which consumes 80 percent of Atlantic bluefin, has said it will ignore the ban. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)AP - A U.N. body best known for protecting tigers and elephants will focus on the world's overfished oceans beginning this week with proposals to regulate the shark trade and ban the export of a tuna species prized by sushi lovers.




Obama lauds Colombian president for heeding court (AP)
AP - President Barack Obama is applauding Colombian President Alvaro Uribe for accepting a court decision that prevents him from running for a third term.

House rejects bid to pull troops from Afghanistan (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — The House of Representatives rejected a resolution Wednesday that called on President Barack Obama to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by year's end.

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