The Ref's Daily Political Brief
McCain endorsed by New York Times, but that does not help with conservatives - Also, McCain raking in the dough, but is it enough to compete with Romney?
- Primary Choices: John McCain - NYT | 1/25/08
- McCain Astonished That Clinton 'Wants to Surrender to the Enemy' - CNS | 1/24/08
- Mama McCain: Son Has No Support From Base - Time | 1/24/08
- McCain Rakes in $7 Million in 3 Weeks, Following Early Victories - Fox News | 1/24/08
- McCain focuses on party voters - W. Times | 1/25/08
- Aide Helped Controversial Russian Meet McCain - W. Post | 1/25/08
Romney ahead in all Florida polls that do not include Thompson as he seeks Governor Jeb Bush's endorsement
- Poll: Romney Holds Slim Lead in Florida - Newsmax | 1/24/08
- Mitt Romney courts neutral Jeb Bush - Politico | 1/24/08
Hillary endorsed by the New York Times and looks good in the polls - Bill Clinton offends some blacks as he fights for his wife
- Primary Choices: Hillary Clinton - NYT | 1/25/08
- Amid Criticism, Clinton Camp Pulls Negative Obama Ad From South Carolina Airwaves - Fox News | 1/24/08
- Hill's a Jersey Girl - NY Post | 1/24/08
- Bill Clinton: Wife's 'Defender-In-Chief' - AP | 1/24/08
- Bill Defends Hillarys Wal-Mart Work - Newsmax | 1/24/08
- Clinton’s Campaign Sees Value in Keeping Former President in Attack Mode - NYT | 1/25/08
- Black America Feels the Sting of Ex-President's Comments - W. Post | 1/25/08
Obama maintains big lead in South Carolina as he again reminds voters that Hillary voted for the Iraq war
- SC Backs Barack by 18 Points - NY Post | 1/24/08
- Obama Returns to Clinton's War Vote - AP | 1/24/08
- Obama: Clinton Will Say Anything, Do Nothing - Newsmax, AFP| 1/24/08
- In the South, Echoes of Jackson’s Run - NYT | 1/25/08
- Obama’s Promises on Letterman - NYT | 1/25/08
- Obama Campaign Pulls Negative Spot, Too - W. Post | 1/24/08
For Rudy Giuliani polls look bad in last stand state Florida and McCain wins Schwarzkopf endorsement
- In 'General,' a Lousy Day for Rudy - NY Post | 1/24/08
- Two Sides of Giuliani - NYT | 1/24/08
- Giuliani's Florida Supporters - NYT | 1/24/08
White House and House of Representatives await Senate approval of stimulus deal, may not come easily
- Stimulus deal reached - W. Times | 1/25/08
- Democrats Test Messages in Early Nationwide Ads - NYT | 1/25/08
- Senate will test limits of econ deal - Politico | 1/24/08
The Ref's Calls
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ROMNEY SEEMED TO WIN THE DEBATE
For the first time in all of the Republican debates the phone in poll after the debate showed a winner other than Ron Paul who tends to win every unofficial poll taken by phone or Internet. Mitt Romney edged out Ron Paul in the MSNBC post debate text message poll.
Of course such a poll is not scientific and may only demonstrate that Romney supporters decided to text as much as Ron Paul supporters, but other indicators also point to a Romney victory.
Romney unquestionably scored the most memorable line in the debate when he said that nobody wants to see Bill Clinton in the White House with nothing to do. While such a line might be unpopular with Democrats and even Independents, neither group gets to vote in the Republican primary. Republicans almost certainly loved the line.
The debate centered on economic issues and this played to Romney's strength. McCain made one mistake that we will hear about again over the next three days. He disputed that he said he did not know the economy very well. MSNBC pulled the McCain quote where he said, "The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should. I've got Greenspan's book."
While other candidates will let the slip slide, McCain's opponents in the conservative media, such as Rush Limbaugh, probably will not. Howard Fineman also pointed out an inconsistency in McCain's tax rhetoric. McCain argues that he voted against the Bush tax cuts because spending cuts were not required. Fineman pointed out that the spending cuts are still needed but McCain is not proposing any, yet advocates extending the Bush tax cuts. One can expect the media, at least the conservative media, to magnify this flaw in logic over the next few days.
Romney now seems to be taking the lead in Florida. Each of the last three Florida polls released that do not include Thompson show Romney leading. See the Ref's Florida Poll Averages. He did nothing to hurt himself, talked quite a bit about economics, his strong suit, and threw some red meat to conservatives. Certainly Romney did nothing to hurt himself in the debate and seems to have won it. The Ref – Jan. 25
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WATCH FOR ROMNEY BUMP IN FLORIDA
Two groundbreaking developments Tuesday made Mitt Romney the favorite in the Florida primary. First, Mike Huckabee acknowledged that a money shortage has substantially curtailed his effort in Florida. Huckabee has essentially conceded Florida by not advertising in the state and making only "token" stops at airports for campaign events. Huckabee, Short on Cash, Curtails Effort in Florida - NYT. Second, Fred Thompson withdrew from the race.
Romney stands to benefit from Huckabee's acknowledgment that his efforts are nominal in Florida. Huckabee's Florida supporters now know that he will not win the race. Many of his supporters will look for someone else to support because many voters want to vote for a winner. Huckabee's supporters are largely conservative Evangelicals so it makes sense that they will choose among candidates taking the most conservative policy stands, either Thompson or Romney.
Thompson, however, has dropped out of the race. The majority of Huckabee's Florida supporters will, therefore, vote for Romney. Thompson supporters, furthermore, might have voted for Huckabee. Now that Huckabee has acknowledged his efforts are minimal and that he cannot win there, Thompson supporters will not head for Huckabee's camp, but Romney's.
Watch the Florida polls in the coming days with date ranges beginning on January 23rd. One can expect that Romney will pull ahead in these polls as Thompson is dropped from the list and the Huckabee concession settles in the state's political consciousness. The Ref - Jan. 23, 2008
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The Republicans can count on a large number of close elections in the coming days. Whenever a close election occurs, a spoiler usually exists. Ron Paul, although in the single digits in most states, will pull voters away from someone.
So exactly who does Ron Paul hurt? First one must determine the type of voter that gravitates toward Ron Paul. One could fairly argue that most Ron Paul supporters are Republicans who hold ultra-conservative foreign policy views typical of pre-World War II Republicans. In other words, they oppose military intervention absent attack. They combine this older conservative foreign policy view with libertarian social and economic views.
No Republican candidate closely resembles Paul in terms of his positions. McCain, Giuliani and Romney have all taken strong stances in favor of the Iraq war. Huckabee is perceived as a person willing to spend money. Numerous other major differences exist. The political positions taken by the major Republican candidates simply would not compel Paul voters to vote for them.
Not all Ron Paul voters, however, are motivated purely by the issues. Some voters gravitate toward renegade type candidates and Ron Paul is their patron saint. These people like to prod the establishment simply for the joy of doing it. If Ron Paul were not running would any of the remaining candidates stand to inherit these renegade voters? Yes, John McCain.
While the percentage of voters motivated to come out for a renegade for the sake of it may be small, perhaps one to two percent of the overall vote in a primary, that may be enough to swing a close election. John McCain very well might owe any close losses to Ron Paul. The Ref - Jan. 22, 2008
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Barack Obama shocked many when he said the following of Ronald Reagan: "He tapped into what people were already feeling, which was, ‘We want clarity, we want optimism, we want, you know, a return to that sense of dynamism and entrepreneurship that had been missing.’”
John Edwards apparently filled with shock upon hearing these words as evidenced by his own words. According to the New York Times Edwards said, "“When you think about what Ronald Reagan did to the American people, to the middle class, to the working people . . . (he) created a tax structure that favored the very wealthiest Americans and caused the middle class and working people to struggle every single day.” Edwards Attacks Obama for View of Reagan, NYT, 1/18/08.
Why did Obama shock people when spoke positively of Reagan? Shock resulted because the far left has linked Reagan to all of the perceived evils of corporate America such as greed, racism, sexism and blind American superiority. The words of Edwards demonstrate this link clearly.
Ostensibly Obama aims to truly change the course of this nation. Edwards responded in reactionary fashion. Obama's words manifest a vision that relies less on class and racial antagonism and more on cultivating a shared American identity. Whether that vision survives the campaign and can win in such a hostile Democratic environment, however, remain major questions.
But if Obama genuinely attempts to bridge the divide in action as well as in rhetoric, he represents a potential force that can genuinely shape America's future. Obama must do more than speak the language of optimism to enact this change, but must face down the race and class demagogues that attempt to dominate the Democratic Party. The Ref - Jan. 18, 2008
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