The Ref's Daily Political Brief
McCain Wins by Three Points in South Carolina, Wins All Demographics But Social Conservatives - Huckabee Vows to Fight On
- All About Greenville - Fox News | 1/19/08
- Analysis: McCain Win May Have Set Course - AP | 1/20/08
- Huckabee Says Race 'Far, Far From Over' - AP | 1/20/08
- McCain Feels He's Got Staying Power - AP | 1/20/08
- Ideology, Religion Important in S.C. - AP | 1/20/08
- Weather, Voting Machine Issues Dog SC - Newsmax, AP | 1/19/08
- So, Can We Call Him the Front-Runner? - Slate | 1/19/08
- Mr. Nice Guy - Slate | 1/19/08
- McCain Has Big Win in South Carolina; Huckabee Falls Short - NYT | 1/20/08
- No Quick Knockouts as Races Move to New Terrain - NYT | 1/20/08
- Republicans in South Carolina Focus on the Economy and Values - NYT | 1/20/08
- This Time, McCain Defused Conservative Attacks - W. Post | 1/20/08
- Transcript: McCain Remarks on South Carolina Victory - W. Post | 1/19/08
- The Exit Polls: Why McCain won S.C. - Politico | 1/20/08
On Strength of Women and Latinos Hillary Squeaks Out a Win in Nevada, So Close that Obama Claims He Will Win Majority of Delegates
- Nevada: Keeping an Eye on the Ball - Fox News | 1/19/08
- Analysis: New Tone in Democratic Race - AP | 1/19/08
- Clinton Celebrates Nevada Showing - AP | 1/20/08
- Hillary, Obama dispute Nevada win - W. Times | 1/20/08
- Clinton, Romney Extend Delegate Leads - Newsmax, AP | 1/19/08
- Hillary Hatches a Win: A Clinton win in Nevada ends on an ugly note - Slate | 1/19/08
- Vote of Women Propels Clinton in Nevada Caucus - NYT | 1/20/08
- Women, Latinos Propel Clinton To First Place - W. Post | 1/20/08
- Transcript: Clinton Remarks on Victory After Nevada Caucus - W. Post | 1/19/08
- Nevada tussle signals rancor for Dems - Politico | 1/19/08
- The Entrance Polls: Why Clinton won Nevada - Politico | 1/20/08
- Romney wins big in Nevada - Politico | 1/19/08
Romney Trounces the Field in Nevada
- Romney Celebrates Win in Nevada - AP | 1/19/08
- Romney Extends Delegate Lead - Newsmax | 1/19/08
- Romney Parses Role of Religion at the Polls - NYT | 1/19/08
- Romney Gains Easy Victory in Nevada’s G.O.P. Contest - NYT | 1/20/08
- Transcript: Romney Declares Victory After Nevada Caucus - W. Post | 1/19/08
Thompson Speaks But Gets Little Response
- Chris & Keith Continue To Laugh At GOP Speeches - Fishbowl DC | 1/19/08
Giuliani Has Been Laying the Groundwork for Weeks - Many Absentee Ballots Already Cast
- Giuliani Goes on Offensive in Florida - AP | 1/20/08
- Giuliani and the G.O.P.’s 11th Commandment - NYT | 1/19/08
Bloomberg Keeping Himself in the National News
- Bloomberg Has Harsh Words for Washington - AP | 1/20/08
The Ref's Calls
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Barack Obama shocked many when he said the following of Ronald Reagan: "He tapped into what people were already feeling, which was, ‘We want clarity, we want optimism, we want, you know, a return to that sense of dynamism and entrepreneurship that had been missing.’”
John Edwards apparently filled with shock upon hearing these words as evidenced by his own words. According to the New York Times Edwards said, "“When you think about what Ronald Reagan did to the American people, to the middle class, to the working people . . . (he) created a tax structure that favored the very wealthiest Americans and caused the middle class and working people to struggle every single day.” Edwards Attacks Obama for View of Reagan, NYT, 1/18/08.
Why did Obama shock people when spoke positively of Reagan? Shock resulted because the far left has linked Reagan to all of the perceived evils of corporate America such as greed, racism, sexism and blind American superiority. The words of Edwards demonstrate this link clearly.
Ostensibly Obama aims to truly change the course of this nation. Edwards responded in reactionary fashion. Obama's words manifest a vision that relies less on class and racial antagonism and more on cultivating a shared American identity. Whether that vision survives the campaign and can win in such a hostile Democratic environment, however, remain major questions.
But if Obama genuinely attempts to bridge the divide in action as well as in rhetoric, he represents a potential force that can genuinely shape America's future. Obama must do more than speak the language of optimism to enact this change, but must face down the race and class demagogues that attempt to dominate the Democratic Party. The Ref - Jan. 18, 2008
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HARDBALL ATTEMPTS TO CREATE ITS OWN REALITY
Hardball consistently stretches the truth or deliberately states untruths to push its agenda. Chris Matthews has made no secret of his support for Barack Obama or his disgust with Mitt Romney and the entire Republican field with the exception of McCain.
Tonight Hardball's chief correspondent David Schuster, presumably a reporter, described Romney’s reaction to a question from a reporter as an eruption. Romney's reaction resembled nothing like an eruption, but merely a slightly annoyed but calm response. See the video here.
This instance of media bias represents a perfect example of the kind of distortion that makes many of us skeptical of the media. Chris Matthews is a commentator but David Schuster is not. Hardball regularly masks commentary as reporting. It is this practice to which we object. The Ref - Jan. 17, 2008
Also, Chris Matthews Admits He Went Too Far in Criticizing Hillary: Matthews: I Wronged Clinton With Remark - Newsmax, AP | 1/17/08
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Now that Romney has won Michigan we know he will remain a competitor in the race until at least February 5th, Super Tuesday. We cannot say the same of any other Republican hopeful because they all need wins to raise money and remain competitive.
Because Romney represents the one constant we can reach two major conclusions. First, Romney will benefit from the South Carolina primary regardless of who wins. While some believe that Romney's chief competitor is McCain, he actually loses more votes to Huckabee and Thompson. Both Huckabee and Thompson receive primarily votes of conservatives who would likely split more toward Romney than McCain.
If McCain wins South Carolina and Huckabee finishes in second place, Thompson will likely drop out and Huckabee will be substantially weakened. As a result Romney will gain some votes from both Thompson and Huckabee. McCain, however, will gain few votes from other candidates until Giuliani drops out.
The second conclusion we can reach is that McCain must win conservative votes to win the nomination. He is in the same battle for conservatives in which Romney, Huckabee and Thompson are engaged. Conservatives rule the Republican Party and they will decide who takes the nomination. Michigan represented McCain's most favorable remaining state because of its loose voting rules. The remaining calendar features mostly states that allow only Republicans to vote for the Republican nomination. Losing Michigan hurt McCain significantly.
The one major remaining question is who can win the conservative vote? Once a candidate receiving conservative votes drops out, probably Thompson, those voters will go somewhere. McCain must take a sizable portion of them to stop Romney. The next big race, therefore, is South Carolina. Watch where Thompson finishes. If he finishes third or below the race for the newly freed up conservatives begins. McCain has not fared well with conservatives in the past. We will see if he or Romney can win them. For now, watch South Carolina. The Ref - Jan. 15, 2008
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The debate over Bill Clinton's comments has gotten out of hand. It seems that the argument will come to an end after the Nevada Democratic debate where Obama and Hillary agreed that they will put it behind them. Hopefully the parties they represent will allow it to die.
The controversy highlights the new political variables that now exist because a black candidate has a legitimate shot at winning a major party's nomination. These new variables present an opportunity to put a great deal of racial tension behind us, but also present the risk of inflaming them as well.
It serves no person or group well when the media or a candidate decides to use the race card. Certainly the media deserves some blame in this case as does Senator Obama's campaign, as Senator Obama acknowledged in Tuesday's debate by agreeing that his campaign had attempted to push the story.
Perhaps this will be the last time during the nomination process when racial tension flares so significantly. If it happens again the Democrats are on their way back to 1968 when the tensions within the party manifested into riots at the national convention. The Ref - Jan. 15, 2008
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