January 2, 2008

1 Day Until the Iowa Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani 20.8
Huckabee
 18.3
McCain 16.0
Romney 13.5
Thompson 11.8
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 22.2%
Clinton 46.0
Obama 23.8
Edwards 13.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +1.5%
Clinton +3.7%
New Hampshire
Romney +3.0%
Clinton +3.7%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

The Ref's Calls

Obama's Best Allies?  Romney Victories          

According to the polls in most states but Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the Democratic Party has firmly set sail for Clinton country. Obama may pull off the early upsets but the wins may amount to nothing more than a strong headwind that ultimately does not matter.

Whether Obama can turn the ship depends entirely on the degree of impact of the early wins. If he wins only Iowa the Clinton momentum will not be stopped. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire it gets interesting. If he then takes South Carolina maybe the massive leads Hillary holds in most states will be diminished and the tide will begin to shift.

Like any resistance a ship faces Obama needs the counter wind to be as strong and last as long as possible to shift the course of the Democratic Party.  The problem for Obama is that he is facing a strongly entrenched opposition, or to torture the analogy a bit more, a massive ocean liner full of wealthy Hillary supporters, and more importantly, women. 

Identity politics has long played an important role in Democratic races. It may be the case that Obama simply cannot persuade enough women that they should vote against their gender. 

Considering that the early states are voting in a compressed time period winning those contests may amount to merely a footnote this time around. External factors will play a more significant role in determining Obama's fate, specifically the media and Republican race. 

If Romney and Huckabee split the early states the interest those contests engender will likely prevent Obama from creating the perfect media storm he needs. If Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Obama can do the same, Obama will be the bigger story and he will get wall to wall coverage.  No other Republican candidate can win all three contests. 

So if one wants Obama to win the Democratic nomination, he or she might want to root for Romney.  The Ref - Jan. 1 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Huckabee Consultant Ed Rollins Recommended Going After Romney . . . Huckabee Accepts, then Rejects Advice

Fox News Acquires Clear Copy of "Cancelled" Huckabee Attack Ad

Ron Paul Left Out of Fox Debate

Nader Endorses Edwards: It Might Help in Iowa Where Strong Core of Liberals Reside


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Obama says health care fraud and abuse must end (AP)

US President Barack Obama speaks on healthcare and health insurance reform at Arcadia University in Glenside, Pennsylvania. Obama has launched a populist assault on price-gouging American insurance firms, escalating his last-ditch bid to pass a historic health reform bill.(AFP/Saul Loeb)AP - President Barack Obama says Washington for too long has accepted billions of dollars in health care fraud and abuse as simply the cost of doing business. He says that must end.




Obama renews backing of earthquake-stricken Haiti (AP)

President Barack Obama and Haitian President Rene Preval leave the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, March 10, 2010, after making a joint statement. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)AP - President Barack Obama on Wednesday renewed America's commitment to the recovery and reconstruction of earthquake-devastated Haiti, telling visiting President Rene Preval he knows the crisis has not passed.




Female WWII aviators honored with gold medal (AP)

Marguerite McCreery of Portsmouth, Va., left, and Margaret Gilman of Garden City, NY, right, are seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, March 10, 2010, following a ceremony where former members of the Women Airforce Service Pilots, the first women in to fly America's military aircraft, were awarded the Congressional Gold Medal. (AP Photo/Lauren Victoria Burke)AP - They flew planes during World War II but weren't considered "real" military pilots. No flags were draped over their coffins when they died on duty. And when their service ended, they had to pay their own bus fare home.




Issa raises questions on Sestak allegations (Politico)
Politico - GOP Rep says Sestak claims of W.H. job offer may have crossed the line, if true.

Hill unhappy with Capitol Police (Politico)
Politico - Lawmakers warn Chief Morse that $5.5M error could cost him control of his own department's budget.

Senate passes jobless aid, business tax breaks (AP)

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., left, listens as Sen. Benjamin Cardin, D-Md., speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, March 10, 2010, to discuss the Democrats jobs agenda. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)AP - The Senate voted Wednesday to extend a host of soon-to-expire elements of last year's economic stimulus measure, including help for the jobless and money to help financially strapped states pay for health care for the poor.




Fed recovers, gets new look as financial regulator (AP)
AP - The Federal Reserve, still dusting itself off from a fight that threatened to trim its powers, could emerge from a congressional overhaul of banking rules as the top cop over the nation's largest financial institutions.

House bans misleading census mailings (AP)
AP - The House passed legislation Wednesday that would ban misleading mailings designed to appear they're from the Census Bureau, following criticism that Republican groups were sending fundraising letters using the census name.

Products recalled due to possible salmonella risk (AP)
AP - The following products are being recalled because they could be contaminated with salmonella, an organism that can cause serious and sometimes fatal infections in young children and others with weakened immune systems:

Roberts: Scene at State of Union 'very troubling' (AP)

FILE - In this Sept. 29, 2009, file photo, Chief Justice John Roberts sits for a new group photograph with other Supreme Court judges at the Supreme Court in Washington. For a short time Thursday, March 4, 2010, Washington buzzed over a rumor reported exclusively by an online gossip Web site with no particular Supreme Court expertise that Chief Justice John Roberts was considering stepping down. He is not resigning, as even the Radar Online site quickly concluded in backing away from its own story. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)AP - U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts said Tuesday the scene at President Barack Obama's first State of the Union address was "very troubling" and that the annual speech to Congress has "degenerated into a political pep rally."




Greece urging US to better regulate hedge funds (AP)
AP - Greece is urging the United States to step up regulation of hedge funds that Athens blames for making Greece's economic crisis worse.

Turkish officials lower quake death toll to 41 (AP)

Turkish soldiers set up a tent for survivors in Teke village in the eastern province of Elazig, Turkey, Tuesday, March 9, 2010, a day after a strong earthquake, with a preliminary magnitude of 6, hit eastern Turkey early Monday, killing at least 57 people and knocking down houses in at least six villages, the government said. Local people are trying to piece their lives back together with the help of the military and aid agencies. (AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici)AP - Turkish officials on Wednesday lowered the death toll in this week's magnitude 6 earthquake from 51 to 41.




Spain: Aid worker in Africa released by militants (AP)
AP - A Spanish aid worker who spent 100 days as a hostage of al-Qaida's North African offshoot arrived home tired and grateful after being released Wednesday, and said she hopes two colleagues abducted with her in Mauritania will follow her soon.

Va OKs 1st bill banning mandated health coverage (AP)
AP - Virginia's General Assembly became the first in the nation Wednesday to approve legislation that bucks any attempt by President Barack Obama and Congress to implement a national health care overhaul in individual states.

Finally, a bipartisan vote as Senate passes jobs measure (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — The Senate Wednesday passed a $137.9 billion package aimed at helping jobless people get more benefits and businesses to hire more workers, but only after controversy about the bill's cost and impact. The rare bipartisan vote was 62 to 36.

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