- The Ref's Daily Political Brief
Republicans Deadlocked
- Republicans Ponder Deadlocked Convention - AP | 1/16/08
- Unifying Message Likely to Produce GOP's Standout - W. Post | 1/17/08
- GOP funk slows turnout, money - Politico | 1/16/08
Obama Played Politics with Senate Vote - Seeks to Lessen Hillary's Advantage Among Women
- Obama Seeks Pivotal Female Support - AP | 1/17/08
- Obama Talks About the Economy - NYT | 1/17/08
- Ad: Obama Touts War Opposition, Lobby Reform - W. Post | 1/17/08
- Obama blocked own 'top Senate achievement' - Politico | 1/16/08
- Obama 'unhappy' with racial memo - Politico | 1/16/08
McCain Fights in South Carolina, Guarantees a Win
- Vets Not a Sure Thing for McCain in SC - AP | 1/17/08
- McCain Takes the Fight To Negative Opponents - W. Post | 1/17/08
- McCain Stands by Rebel Flag Stance -Newsmax, AP | 1/16/08
- McCain fights familiar smears in S.C. - MSNBC, NYT | 1/17/08
- McCain camp goes on offense in S.C. - LA Times | 1/16/08
- McCain: "I'll Win" in South Carolina - CBS | 1/16/08
- The Passion of John McCain - Newsweek | 1/16/08
- Campaign slur against John McCain - Telegraph | 1/17/08
See a Push Poll Made on Huckabee's Behalf, Apparently Unaffiliated With Huckabee
- Is Huckabee conservative? - Townhall | 1/17/08
- Thoughts on Michigan and the Evangelical Vote - American Prospect | 1/16/08
- Huckabee vows to send all illegal aliens home - W. Times | 1/16/08
- Why Huck is Equally Loved and Hated!!! - Townhall | 1/16/08
- See a Push Poll on Behalf of Huckabee Below
Romney Pushes in Florida as He Backs Off a Bit in South Carolina - Also Promises to Save the Southern Economy
- The Elephant In The Room, Ann Coulter - Townhall | 1/16/08
- Romney Pledges to Save Southern Economy - AP | 1/16/08
- Romney Putting Modest Effort in South Carolina - NRO | 1/16/08
- Why Romney Won - NRO | 1/16/08
- Key Tenets of Mormon Faith - AP | 1/16/08
- Can the Economy Save Mitt Romney? - Time | 1/17/08
- Where's The Outrage? - Atlantic | 1/16/08
- Romney renews push in Florida - SP Times | 1/17/08
Nevada Caucuses
- Court Case Could Alter Nev. Outcome - AP | 1/17/08
- Nevada Expectations: Rory Reid v. David Axelrod - Fox News | 1/16/08
- Edwards at Odds with Clinton and Obama Over Nuclear Power - Fox News | 1/17/08
- After Race Feud, Democrats Return Carefully to Conflict - NY Sun | 1/16/08
South Carolina Republican Primary
- GOP Candidates Scramble for S.C. Win - AP | 1/16/08
- McCain Parries a Reprise of ’00 Smear Tactics - NYT | 1/17/08
- In South Carolina, the Campaign Mud Arrived Before Santa - NYT | 1/17/08
- Focus Shifts to South Carolina for Romney and Rivals - NYT | 1/17/08
- In S. Carolina, little zeal over GOP field - Tribune | 1/17/08
Giuliani Still Working Florida
- Even at Home, Backers Worry About Giuliani - NYT | 1/17/08
- Giuliani Tries for Hail Mary in Florida - AP | 1/17/08
Other Election News
- Rove previews strategies against Clinton, Obama - The Hill | 1/16/08
- Politics of sex and race - W. Times | 1/17/08
- 2008 Presidential Race Most Expensive Ever - Newsmax, AFP | 1/16/08
The Ref's Calls
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HARDBALL ATTEMPTS TO CREATE ITS OWN REALITY
Hardball consistently stretches the truth or deliberately states untruths to push its agenda. Chris Matthews has made no secret of his support for Barack Obama or his disgust with Mitt Romney and the entire Republican field with the exception of McCain.
Tonight Hardball's chief correspondent David Schuster, presumably a reporter, described Romney’s reaction to a question from a reporter as an eruption. Romney's reaction resembled nothing like an eruption, but merely a slightly annoyed but calm response.
This instance of media bias represents a perfect example of the kind of distortion that makes many of us skeptical of the media. Chris Matthews is a commentator but David Schuster is not. Hardball regularly masks commentary as reporting. It is this practice to which we object. We will look for a video of this distortion of reality.
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Now that Romney has won Michigan we know he will remain a competitor in the race until at least February 5th, Super Tuesday. We cannot say the same of any other Republican hopeful because they all need wins to raise money and remain competitive.
Because Romney represents the one constant we can reach two major conclusions. First, Romney will benefit from the South Carolina primary regardless of who wins. While some believe that Romney's chief competitor is McCain, he actually loses more votes to Huckabee and Thompson. Both Huckabee and Thompson receive primarily votes of conservatives who would likely split more toward Romney than McCain.
If McCain wins South Carolina and Huckabee finishes in second place, Thompson will likely drop out and Huckabee will be substantially weakened. As a result Romney will gain some votes from both Thompson and Huckabee. McCain, however, will gain few votes from other candidates until Giuliani drops out.
The second conclusion we can reach is that McCain must win conservative votes to win the nomination. He is in the same battle for conservatives in which Romney, Huckabee and Thompson are engaged. Conservatives rule the Republican Party and they will decide who takes the nomination. Michigan represented McCain's most favorable remaining state because of its loose voting rules. The remaining calendar features mostly states that allow only Republicans to vote for the Republican nomination. Losing Michigan hurt McCain significantly.
The one major remaining question is who can win the conservative vote? Once a candidate receiving conservative votes drops out, probably Thompson, those voters will go somewhere. McCain must take a sizable portion of them to stop Romney. The next big race, therefore, is South Carolina. Watch where Thompson finishes. If he finishes third or below the race for the newly freed up conservatives begins. McCain has not fared well with conservatives in the past. We will see if he or Romney can win them. For now, watch South Carolina. The Ref - Jan. 15 Â
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The debate over Bill Clinton's comments has gotten out of hand. It seems that the argument will come to an end after the Nevada Democratic debate where Obama and Hillary agreed that they will put it behind them. Hopefully the parties they represent will allow it to die.
The controversy highlights the new political variables that now exist because a black candidate has a legitimate shot at winning a major party's nomination. These new variables present an opportunity to put a great deal of racial tension behind us, but also present the risk of inflaming them as well.
It serves no person or group well when the media or a candidate decides to use the race card. Certainly the media deserves some blame in this case as does Senator Obama's campaign, as Senator Obama acknowledged in Tuesday's debate by agreeing that his campaign had attempted to push the story.
Perhaps this will be the last time during the nomination process when racial tension flares so significantly. If it happens again the Democrats are on their way back to 1968 when the tensions within the party manifested into riots at the national convention. The Ref - Jan. 15
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