January 16, 2008

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Upcoming Primary/Caucus Dates

  • 1/19 - Nevada
  • 1/19 - South Carolina Republicans
  • 1/25 - Hawaii Republicans
  • 1/26 - South Carolina Democrats
  • 1/29 - Florida
  • 2/1 - Maine Republicans
McCain Leads by 7.5%
McCain
 28.2
Huckabee
 20.7
Giuliani
 14.5
Romney
 12.3
Thompson
 9.2
Paul
 3.7
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 8.6%
Clinton
 41.3
Obama
 32.7
Edwards
 13.7
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Huckabee +2.5%
Obama +11.4%
McCain +0.4%
Clinton +19.6%
McCain +4.0%
Obama +2.0%
Clinton
 48.5
Giuliani
 45.5
Clinton
 47.0
Thompson
 42.0
Clinton
 45.0
McCain
 48.5
Clinton
 49.8
Romney
 44.3
Clinton
 51.3
Huckabee
 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Obama prepares education overhaul (AP)

President Barack Obama arrives to speak at the Export-Import Bank's Annual Conference in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - President Barack Obama on Saturday promised to rewrite the nation's sweeping and controversial education law known as No Child Left Behind with a plan to prepare students for life after high school and to place better teachers at the blackboards.




Senators resist Obama over projects in health bill (AP)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nev., left, along with Gina Owens from Seattle, Wash.,left, whose daughter, Tiffany Owens died after losing her job and health care, Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin of Ill. center, and others, arrive for a health care news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)AP - President Barack Obama says he wants projects helping specific states yanked from the health care bill Congress is writing. Democratic senators, being senators, beg to differ.




GOP warns again against passing health bill (AP)

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass. talks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, March 9, 2010, before attending the weekly caucus luncheons. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)AP - Newly arrived Republican Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts accused President Barack Obama and Democrats on Saturday of a "bitter, destructive and endless" drive to pass health overhaul legislation that Brown warned would be disastrous.




Obama's reluctant populism irks left (Politico)
Politico - Liberals are looking to Obama for leadership, but complain he is falling short.

Massa media: The week on cable (Politico)
Politico - Eric Massa has provided a story line that's proven irresistible to right-wing media.

Reid's wife undergoes surgery after traffic crash (AP)

This undated image from Senator Harry Reid's Senate website shows Reid, second from left standing, with his family including daughter Lana, left sitting, and wife Landra. Reid's wife was hospitalized with a broken back and neck Thursday March 11, 2010 after a tractor-trailer truck slammed into the back of the minivan in which she and their daughter were riding on an interstate highway in suburban Virginia, officials said. Reid's wife, Landra, 69, whose injuries were not believed to be life-threatening, and their daughter, Lana Barringer, 49, were taken by ambulance to Inova Fairfax Hospital in Falls Church, Va. The daughter was released from the hospital Thursday night, hospital spokesman Tony Raker said. (AP Photo/US Senate)AP - Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's wife underwent surgery Friday to stabilize serious injuries suffered when a tractor-trailer rear-ended the minivan she and their daughter were riding in on an interstate highway.




US avoids anti-abortion debate at UN meeting (AP)

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, left, meets United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the United Nations headquarters on Friday, March 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)AP - A U.N. meeting to assess progress in advancing the fight for women's equality that ended Friday had a dramatically different slant than a similar session held five years ago: This time, the United States was not trying to make an anti-abortion declaration a crucial theme.




Democrats seek agreement, vote on health care (AP)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif. leaves after a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Friday, March 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)AP - Under White House pressure to act swiftly, House and Senate Democratic leaders reached for agreement Friday on President Barack Obama's health care bill, sweetened suddenly by fresh billions for student aid and a sense that breakthroughs are at hand.




It's time to spring forward again (AP)
AP - Good evening sunshine, America says hello, you light up our evenings, we light charcoal below.

States scramble after high court election ruling (AP)

** FILE ** In this Feb. 6, 2007 file photo, Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner talks in her office in Columbus, Ohio. When the U.S. Supreme Court struck down old limits on campaign spending in January, it left states facing an election year burden: brace for a flood of new money in elections, or find new ways to rein it in. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato, file)AP - The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of decades-old campaign spending limits gives states scant time to face an election-year dilemma: brace for a flood of new money in politics, or find new ways to rein it in.




US gov't knew about NJ man before Yemen arrest (AP)
AP - A law enforcement official says the U.S. government knew about the New Jersey man charged in Yemen with being a member of al-Qaida, even before Yemeni officials arrested him.

Body of ETA member turns up in French morgue (AP)

This image made available on Friday March 12, 2010 by the family of Jon Anza Ortunez family, shows an undated portrait of suspected member of the armed Basque group ETA member, Jon Anza Ortunez. The body of Ortunez has turned up in a morgue in France, nearly a year after his mysterious disappearance, a committee of his supporters said Friday. Ortunez, was last seen April 18 2009 In a statement released to a Spanish Basque newspaper in May, ETA claimed him as a member and blamed Spanish police for a role in his disappearance — a claim Spain denied.(AP Photo/HO) **NO SALES**AP - The body of a longtime member of the armed Basque group ETA has turned up in a morgue in France, nearly a year after his mysterious disappearance, a committee of his supporters said Friday.




Pope to skip Alps this summer (AP)
AP - The Vatican says Pope Benedict XVI, who broke his wrist last summer during his Alpine vacation, is passing up invitations to return to the mountains so he can spend his holiday near Rome.

Health care battle delays Obama Pacific trip (AFP)

The fierce and fateful battle over health care reform has forced President Barack Obama to delay his departure on a trip to Indonesia and Australia by three days, to March 21.(AFP/FIle/Saul Loeb)AFP - The fierce and fateful battle over health care reform has forced President Barack Obama to delay his departure on a trip to Indonesia and Australia by three days, to March 21.




Agency places shotgun order: FBI? No, Education Department (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — Schools may be gun-free zones, but the U.S. Department of Education is locked and loaded.

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Romney Receives Large Amount of Negative Press Coverage as He Wins Michigan

Republican Primaries

Hillary Focusses on Terrorism in Nevada Debate, Distances Herself From Race Controversy, as Large Uncommitted Vote Goes Against Her in Michigan

Obama the Subject of Lying Email

McCain Leads in One South Carolina Poll, Vows to Win the State as Campaign Criticizes Romney - Also Receives Criticism from Conservative Media

Huckabee Loses Big in Michigan, Will Focus on South Carolina

Giuliani Tries to Stay Relevant

Bloomberg Encouraged to Run for President

Democratic Debate Sees Hillary and Obama Make Peace As Kucinich Loses Court Challenge

Thompson Attempts to Rise in South Carolina

MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS

Republican Primary
Candidate
%
Romney
39
McCain
30
Huckabee
16
Paul
6
Thompson
4
Giuliani
3
Uncommitted
2
100% Reporting
-
Democratic Primary
Clinton
55
Uncommitted
40
100% Reporting

 

 

The Ref's Calls

____________________________________

THE NEXT BIG REPUBLICAN RACE

Now that Romney has won Michigan we know he will remain a competitor in the race until at least February 5th, Super Tuesday. We cannot say the same of any other Republican hopeful because they all need wins to raise money and remain competitive. 

Because Romney represents the one constant we can reach two major conclusions. First, Romney will benefit from the South Carolina primary regardless of who wins. While some believe that Romney's chief competitor is McCain, he actually loses more votes to Huckabee and Thompson. Both Huckabee and Thompson receive primarily votes of conservatives who would likely split more toward Romney than McCain.

If McCain wins South Carolina and Huckabee finishes in second place, Thompson will likely drop out and Huckabee will be substantially weakened. As a result Romney will gain some votes from both Thompson and Huckabee. McCain, however, will gain few votes from other candidates until Giuliani drops out. 

The second conclusion we can reach is that McCain must win conservative votes to win the nomination. He is in the same battle for conservatives in which Romney, Huckabee and Thompson are engaged. Conservatives rule the Republican Party and they will decide who takes the nomination. Michigan represented McCain's most favorable remaining state because of its loose voting rules.  The remaining calendar features mostly states that allow only Republicans to vote for the Republican nomination. Losing Michigan hurt McCain significantly.

The one major remaining question is who can win the conservative vote? Once a candidate receiving conservative votes drops out, probably Thompson, those voters will go somewhere. McCain must take a sizable portion of them to stop Romney. The next big race, therefore, is South Carolina. Watch where Thompson finishes. If he finishes third or below the race for the newly freed up conservatives begins.  McCain has not fared well with conservatives in the past.  We will see if he or Romney can win them.  For now, watch South Carolina.  The Ref - Jan. 15   

 

____________________________________

THE CLINTONS ARE NOT RACISTS

The debate over Bill Clinton's comments has gotten out of hand. It seems that the argument will come to an end after the Nevada Democratic debate where Obama and Hillary agreed that they will put it behind them. Hopefully the parties they represent will allow it to die. 

The controversy highlights the new political variables that now exist because a black candidate has a legitimate shot at winning a major party's nomination. These new variables present an opportunity to put a great deal of racial tension behind us, but also present the risk of inflaming them as well.

It serves no person or group well when the media or a candidate decides to use the race card. Certainly the media deserves some blame in this case as does Senator Obama's campaign, as Senator Obama acknowledged in Tuesday's debate by agreeing that his campaign had attempted to push the story.

Perhaps this will be the last time during the nomination process when racial tension flares so significantly. If it happens again the Democrats are on their way back to 1968 when the tensions within the party manifested into riots at the national convention.  The Ref - Jan. 15

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