January 15, 2008

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Upcoming Primary/Caucus Dates

  • 1/15 - Michigan
  • 1/19 - Nevada
  • 1/19 - South Carolina Republicans
  • 1/25 - Hawaii Republicans
  • 1/26 - South Carolina Democrats
  • 1/29 - Florida
  • 2/1 - Maine Republicans
McCain Leads by 7.8%
McCain
 28.3
Huckabee
 20.5
Giuliani
 14.5
Romney
 12.3
Thompson
 9.2
Paul
 3.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 8.2%
Clinton
 41.5
Obama
 33.3
Edwards
 13.3
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Huckabee +4.8%
Obama +13.0%
Romney +0.5%
Clinton Running Unopposed
Huckabee +0.3%
Clinton +16.2%
McCain +4.0%
Obama +2.0%
Clinton
 48.5
Giuliani
 45.5
Clinton
 47.0
Thompson
 42.0
Clinton
 45.0
McCain
 48.5
Clinton
 49.8
Romney
 44.3
Clinton
 51.3
Huckabee
 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Boehner determined to kill Dem health care bill (AP)

House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, left, walks with Rep. Dave Camp, R-Mich., right, to a Republican caucus, Thursday, March 11, 2010, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)AP - The top House Republican says the GOP can defeat the Democratic health care bill that may reach the House floor this coming week.




AP Exclusive: Pentagon gun was from Tenn. police (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 6, 2007 file photo, Miami police chief John Timoney speaks during a news conference. Law enforcement officials say two guns used in high-profile attacks, one at the Pentagon, and another from the fatal January shooting of an officer at a Las Vegas courthouse, both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tennessee. (AP Photo/David Adame, File)AP - Two guns used in high-profile shootings this year at the Pentagon and a Las Vegas courthouse both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tenn.




House vote counter hunting for health care votes (AP)
AP - The Democrat's chief vote counter in the House says that right now there aren't enough votes to pass President Barack Obama's health care overhaul.

Moderates' demand for Obama wanes (Politico)
Politico - Some Democrats are unenthusiastic about riding the president's coattails this year.

W.H. plan to remake education law (Politico)
Politico - The plan undoes much of No Child Left Behind.

Boehner says GOP has chance of recapturing House (AP)
AP - House Republican leader John Boehner says his party has a shot at recapturing the House majority it lost to Democrats in 2006.

Social Security to start cashing Uncle Sam's IOUs (AP)
AP - The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration.

Republicans need more than opposition: Rove (Reuters)
Reuters - Karl Rove, architect of George W. Bush's two presidential election wins, says he believes Republicans need to offer more than just opposition to Democrats in the November congressional elections.

AP Source: Colo. woman held in terror probe (AP)

Swedish cartoonist Lars Vilks walks in the streets of Stockholm. A second American Muslim woman has been arrested in Ireland on charges of conspiracy to kill the cartoonist who made fun of the Prophet Mohammed, The Wall Street Journal reported.(AFP/File/Francois Campredon)AP - A U.S. official says a Colorado woman has been detained in Ireland in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate a Swedish cartoonist whose sketch offended many Muslims.




States scramble after high court election ruling (AP)

** FILE ** In this Feb. 6, 2007 file photo, Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner talks in her office in Columbus, Ohio. When the U.S. Supreme Court struck down old limits on campaign spending in January, it left states facing an election year burden: brace for a flood of new money in elections, or find new ways to rein it in. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato, file)AP - The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of decades-old campaign spending limits gives states scant time to face an election-year dilemma: brace for a flood of new money in politics, or find new ways to rein it in.




Obama delays Asia trip to deal with health care (AP)

President Barack Obama speaks at the Export-Import Bank's Annual Conference in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - President Barack Obama has delayed his visit to Asia, his first international trip of the year, to focus on the push to salvage health care legislation after a year of contentious debate.




New U.N. mission chief in Kabul after tough year (Reuters)

Wounded civilians lie in beds in a hospital after they got wounded in an explosion in Kandahar south of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, March 14, 2010 The governor of Kandahar province demanded more security around Afghanistan's largest southern city Sunday after 12 explosions killed dozens of people in the Taliban heartland that will be the target of the war's next major offensive. (AP Photo/Allauddin Khan)Reuters - A new United Nations mission chief arrived in Kabul on Saturday to take up his post after a difficult year that saw the mission divided over election fraud and forced to cut back staff after a deadly attack.




Serbian police detain 9 over alleged war crimes (AP)
AP - Serbian police have detained nine former paramilitary fighters suspected of killing civilians and looting homes during the Kosovo war, a war crimes prosecutor said Saturday.

Rove: Obama ‘aloof and disengaged’ (Politico)
Politico - Karl Rove said Sunday that President Barack Obama has been too "disengaged" from the health care reform process.

Agency places shotgun order: FBI? No, Education Department (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — Schools may be gun-free zones, but the U.S. Department of Education is locked and loaded.

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MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS

Republican Primary
Candidate
%
Romney
39
McCain
30
Huckabee
16
Paul
6
Thompson
4
Giuliani
3
Uncommitted
2
89% Reporting
-
Democratic Primary
Clinton
56
Uncommitted
39
89% Reporting

 

Michigan Runup

McCain Hopes for Big Independent, Democratic Turnout in Republican Michigan Primary

Romney Struggles to Get Positive Coverage From the Media

Hillary Wants Out of Race Argument as She Receives "Luke Warm" Response at Event Honoring Martin Luther King Jr. - Plus, Hillary's Iraq "Fairy Tale"

Obama Declares a Truce

Thompson Pointing to His Conservative History and Receives Alfonse D'Amato Endorsement

Huckabee Focusses Heavily on Jobs, Less on God

Giuliani Faces Falling Florida Polls as He Closely Follows Michigan and Talks Economic Security - Also, Receives Jon Voight Endorsement

The Ref's Calls

____________________________________

ROMNEY'S BLUNDER

On Friday Romney said of Michigan, "If we can’t win here, we can’t win anywhere."  It seems that Romney listened to the pundits.  As I wrote in the last Ref's Call, Romney probably does not need to win Michigan to remain a serious contender for the Republican nomination. 

Michigan, like Iowa and New Hampshire, allows Independents to vote.  Although in Michigan Democrats are also allowed to vote.  Michigan sets up perfectly for McCain, a more middle of the road candidate on the issues.

Unless Romney has made some tortured calculation to the effect that he must make his supporters realize that this is the last stand to properly motivate them, it seems that he simply misunderstands where he is in the race.

Romney's real competition is Fred Thompson.  If he can outlast Fred Thompson in this race he stands to win quite a few states where only Republicans can vote.  Perhaps Romney knows this and, as mentioned before, is simply trying to convey the notion that this is an important election. 

Regardless of the reason, when pundits are foaming at the mouth for your scalp it is never a good idea to give them words to hang you with. The Ref - Jan. 11, 2008   

____________________________________

MEDIA NEEDS REALITY CHECK: Romney Not Out if he Loses Michigan

The pundits declared Iowa and New Hampshire must win states for Romney. He won neither state yet he is the delegate leader. 

Delegate leader? Yes, delegate leader. In a race for delegates, delegates are what matter, not the number of wins a candidate amasses.  One would think many of the pundits do not know this basic fact.   

Romney has made it clear that he will not drop out of the race. He will run in all fifty states. He does not need the media to prop him up to raise money because he already has more money than any other candidate has or will have.

Why does the media continue to predict Romney's demise? Perhaps the fact that the conservative establishment supports him represents the reason. 

Regardless of the reason the predictions will be premature until February 5th at the earliest no matter what happens in Michigan. Bottom line, if Romney leads in delegates or is somewhere near the top after February 5th he is very much in the game.

Pundits that say candidates are finished after one, two, or even five states this year fail to account for the open nature of the Republican race. News channels' need to fill a great deal of time does not justify the incompetent political analysis we have seen lately. We have seen far too much of it this year.  The Ref - Jan. 9, 2008 

READ PREVIOUS CALLS

 

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