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REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Huckabee Leads by 0.7%
Huckabee	20.7
McCain	20.0
Giuliani	19.0
Romney	12.0
Thompson	10.7
Paul	3.7
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 8.0%
Clinton	37.3
Obama	29.3
Edwards	18.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
South Carolina
Huckabee +12.6%
Obama +13.0%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Huckabee +1.5%
Clinton +10.0%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
See All Available State Polls
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
(Not In Order of Most Likely)
Clinton	48.5
Giuliani	45.5
Clinton	47.0
Thompson	42.0
Clinton	45.0
McCain	48.5
Clinton	49.8
Romney	44.3
Clinton	51.3
Huckabee	42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

MEDIA NEEDS REALITY CHECK: Romney Not Out if He Loses Michigan Despite Media Predictions

The pundits declared Iowa and New Hampshire must win states for Romney. He won neither state yet he is the delegate leader. 

Delegate leader? Yes, delegate leader. In a race for delegates, delegates are what matter, not the number of wins a candidate amasses.  One would think many of the pundits do not know this basic fact.   

Romney has made it clear that he will not drop out of the race. He will run in all fifty states. He does not need the media to prop him up to raise money because he already has more money than any other candidate has or will have.

Why does the media continue to predict Romney's demise? Perhaps the fact that the conservative establishment supports him represents the reason. 

Regardless of the reason the predictions will be premature until February 5th at the earliest no matter what happens in Michigan. Bottom line, if Romney leads in delegates or is somewhere near the top after February 5th he is very much in the game.

Pundits that say candidates are finished after one, two, or even five states this year fail to account for the open nature of the Republican race. News channels' need to fill a great deal of time does not justify the incompetent political analysis we have seen lately. We have seen far too much of it this year.  The Ref - Jan. 9, 2008 

First Evidence of Faux Support for a Black Candidate in This Race

One of the consistent problems in polling on a black candidate are respondents who say they will vote for a black candidate but fail to when in the privacy of the voting booth. Some strange force seems to grasp some respondents that compels them to voice support for a black candidate when they do not intend to vote for him or her.

Certainly the polls have not been supremely accurate during this election cycle, but no polls have been so uniformly wrong than those that predicted a large Obama victory in New Hampshire. 

The force that compels the false response seems to rely on a lurking desire to please the pollster. Perhaps the high profile of polling in US politics is to blame. Even those who shun politics and only hear political conversations secondhand in bars or restaurants have heard the familiar refrain, "I don't know who they're polling. I've never been called." 

It is true. Very few potential voters actually receive calls from pollsters. So when one receives a call from a pollster who will report these results nationwide there might be a bit of nervousness that arises built on the desire not to look foolish or backward. 

Perhaps this is the reason that so many who said they would vote for Obama apparently did not. Maybe when they entered the voting booth without any desire to please another, but with only a sense of duty to do what they think is right, they voted for Hillary instead of Obama. 

These people are not racists but merely human. When so much attention is paid by the media to the wonder of a black man seriously contending for the presidential nomination, it is not surprising that some poll respondents respond in a way that they assume the pollster wants them to.  

Certainly other explanations may account for some of the disparity between the polls and the actual result, but some voters who told pollsters they would vote for Obama did not and probably never intended to.  The Ref - Jan. 8, 2008

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

• See Previous Calls

 

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Romney Finding His Message, Focusses Entirely on Michigan

• Romney Homes In on a Message That Will Stick - W. Post | 1/10/08
• Romney Pulls Ads in SC, Fla. - Newsmax, AP | 1/9/08

Hillary Dismisses Polls, Relies on Women and Ground Game

• Clinton: I Didn't Believe the Polls - CNS | 1/9/08
• Hillary Ace-in-the-Hole: Superdelegates - Newsmax | 1/9/08
• Clinton’s Message, and Moment, Won the Day - NY Times| 1/10/08
• Women’s Support for Clinton Rises in Wake of Perceived Sexism - NY Times | 1/10/08
• Clinton's Lofty Finish Started at Ground Level - W. Post | 1/10/08
• Clinton the N.H. Comeback Kid - W. Post | 1/10/08

The Primaries

• Candidates Sharpen National Strategies After Tunnel Vision of Iowa, New Hampshire - Fox News | 1/9/08
• McCain, Clinton Look Ahead After Wins - NY Post | 1/9/08
• Richardson to End 2008 Presidential Bid - AP | 1/9/08
• Clinton, Obama Dig in for Long Fight - AP | 1/9/08
• NY Mayor Bloomberg Weighs 2008 Run - AP | 1/9/08
• Analysis: Almost Like Two GOP Primaries - AP | 1/9/08
• Pace Quickens in Wide-Open Races - W. Post | 1/10/08

Obama the "Insurgent" Sharpens His Attacks

• Obama: We Are the Insurgent Campaign - Newsmax | 1/9/08
• Slight of King Could Linger for Voters - NY Sun | 1/10/08
• Obama Is Set Back by a Remarkable Upset - NY Sun | 1/9/08
• Obama Hints of Sharpening Tactics - NY Sun | 1/9/08
• Rove: Obama's 'Smarmy, Prissy' Slap Helped Clinton
  CNS | 1/9/08
• Dividing Up Delegates - Why did Obama get as many as Clinton in New Hampshire, when he finished in second place? - Slate | 1/9/08
• Big Nevada Union Backs Obama - AP | 1/9/08
• Obama Swipes at Clinton, but Takes Aim at Bush - NY Times | 1/10/08

Giuliani Falls Behind in Florida While Practically Living There

• Giuliani Focuses on Florida After Loss - Newsmax, AP | 1/8/08
• Giuliani Falls Behind in The Ref's Florida Averages, Political Ref | 1/10/08

Michigan Primary

• Michigan Next, G.O.P. Rivals Turn to the Economy - NY Times | 1/10/08

Yahoo! News: Politics News Tea Party Express hopes to repeat Alaska win in Delaware Senate primary (The Upshot) The Upshot - Buoyed by Joe Miller's surprise win in Alaska's Senate GOP primary, the Tea Party Express is hoping to take down another heavily favored Republican incumbent, this time in Delaware. The group plans to spend $250,000 on radio and TV ads to boost Christine O'Donnell, a largely unknown conservative activist who is vying against longtime GOP [...] Ariz. governor says she was wrong about beheadings (AP) AP - Gov. Jan Brewer rose to national fame defending the state's immigration law and warning of rising violence along the U.S.-Mexico border, including a claim that headless bodies were turning up in the Arizona desert. Obama to address new economic ideas next Wednesday (Reuters) Reuters - President Barack Obama said on Friday he would outline new measures next week to boost the U.S. economy, but analysts were skeptical he would be able to deliver a big enough package to lift growth significantly. Why Are the Feds Suing Brash Arizona Sheriff? (The Atlantic Wire) The Atlantic Wire - Clinton: Time is now for Mideast peace (AP) AP - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sought to inject urgency into Israeli-Palestinian peace talks Friday, warning the negotiations may be "the last chance for a very long time" to reach an agreement. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer at a loss for words in first debate (The Upshot) The Upshot - It's a politician's worst nightmare: Drawing a complete blank in a high-profile debate. That's what happened to Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, who lost her train of thought during her opening statement during her first televised debate with her Democratic challenger, state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Brewer was in the middle of talking up her [...] More Dems buck plan to let taxes increase for rich (AP) AP - Congress seems increasingly reluctant to let taxes go up, even on wealthier Americans. Feingold to skip Obama rally in Wisconsin (The Upshot) The Upshot - President Obama heads to Milwaukee  onMonday, where he'll mark Labor Day at a statewide union event with other local Democratic candidates — except for one. Sen. Russ Feingold, who is facing a tougher-than-expected re-election campaign, is too busy to meet up with Obama this weekend. It's the second time this summer that Feingold has dodged [...] Dems have few options on economy (Politico) Politico - Democrats desperate for quick policy action to boost the economy face an excruciating dilemma. Ariz. rematch hinges on nat'l party (Politico) Politico - The fight over Arizona's 5th District is shaping up as one of the toughest holds for Democrats. What now for Gulf? Fire complicates drill debate (AP) AP - What now for the Gulf? News of another oil rig fire in the Gulf of Mexico, so soon after the BP oil spill, has set off a wave of anxiety along the Gulf Coast and prompted calls for the government to extend its six-month ban on deepwater drilling. Marine general says Taliban drug trade faltering (AP) AP - The Taliban is confronting a serious "cash flow" problem after losing some half of its annual drug trade money to a farming blight and government eradication efforts, a Marine two-star general said Thursday. Bosnian police track down suspected puppy killer (AP) AP - Police in Bosnia say they believe they have located a young woman shown in a video throwing puppies into a river. Obama unpopular ahead of midterms: Will the GOP benefit? (Time.com) Time.com - Nine weeks before the midterm elections, Barack Obama finds himself on the wrong side of the polls. Where did all that adoration go -- and is a Republican sweep next? Is the GOP ready for prime time? (The Week) The Week - All signs point to big Republican gains in November, enabling the GOP to implement its agenda. But what agenda is that? Add RSS Feeds To My Web Pages Increase Online Traffic

 

 

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