January 1, 2008

2 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani 20.8
Huckabee
 18.3
McCain 16.0
Romney 13.5
Thompson 11.8
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 22.2%
Clinton 46.0
Obama 23.8
Edwards 13.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +2.9%
Clinton +3.3%
New Hampshire
Romney +4.7%
Clinton +2.9%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

The Ref's Calls

Bhutto's Assassination Might Hurt Huckabee and Obama                     

In American politics the events that occur overseas generally only matter if they dominate the news cycle for at least twenty-four hours.  If the story lasts for more than three days because of demand for the story, as opposed to media driven interest, the story will begin to have a major impact for as long as the story lasts. If the story becomes an issue of constant fascination it can change the American political landscape. 

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, while tragic, will likely not prove to impact the American primaries significantly. The story will probably fade by the time Americans go to work on Tuesday morning. The horserace will take over the news cycle on Tuesday and dominate until the caucuses on Thursday.

One can imagine, however, a different scenario where pockets of voters focus on the Bhutto story more than the rest of us and change their vote because of it.  Voters who have underestimated the significance of terrorism in the newly elected president’s next term may be reminded of it and reevaluate their options.

In the Democratic race one might imagine that some Iowa voters have strayed from Hillary and to Obama because they are uncomfortable with her less than zealous opposition to the Iraq war. Perhaps some voters on the periphery might defect from Obama in favor of Hillary's somewhat more hawkish approach. Hillary is not hawkish except when compared to Obama. They might do this because the Bhutto story reminds them that we live in a dangerous world. 

On the Republican side one might imagine that Huckabee stands to lose the most as a result of the story. He is perceived to be softer on terrorism than Giuliani, McCain and Romney because of his distancing himself from the Bush "bunker mentality." This story reminds Iowa voters that terrorism is a danger we must deal with.

This story might aid Romney is drawing the contrast between his Huckabee's approaches to terrorism. This in conjunction with the attack on Huckabee from conservative talk radio might be enough to swing Iowa to Romney.  The Ref - Dec. 28, 2007

 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

32% 26%   32%    25%

Trustworthy Iowa Poll Shows Obama and Huckabee with Leads, But Within Margins of Error

Chelsea Clinton to 9 Year Old: "I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately."

Huckabee Uses Old Political Trick . . . It Worked

Iowa: Romney and Huckabee in a Dead Heat


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Tea Party Express hopes to repeat Alaska win in Delaware Senate primary (The Upshot)
The Upshot - Buoyed by Joe Miller's surprise win in Alaska's Senate GOP primary, the Tea Party Express is hoping to take down another heavily favored Republican incumbent, this time in Delaware. The group plans to spend $250,000 on radio and TV ads to boost Christine O'Donnell, a largely unknown conservative activist who is vying against longtime GOP [...]

Ariz. governor says she was wrong about beheadings (AP)

Republican Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer waits for a televised Arizona gubernatorial debate to begin Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2010 in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)AP - Gov. Jan Brewer rose to national fame defending the state's immigration law and warning of rising violence along the U.S.-Mexico border, including a claim that headless bodies were turning up in the Arizona desert.




Obama to address new economic ideas next Wednesday (Reuters)

President Barack Obama delivers remarks on the latest employment statistics released on Friday, alongside Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in the Rose Garden of the White House, September 3, 2010. REUTERS/Jason ReedReuters - President Barack Obama said on Friday he would outline new measures next week to boost the U.S. economy, but analysts were skeptical he would be able to deliver a big enough package to lift growth significantly.




Why Are the Feds Suing Brash Arizona Sheriff? (The Atlantic Wire)

As he attends an unrelated news conference, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio hands back to one of his deputies an Associated Press news report stating the U.S. Justice Department is suing Arpaio saying the Arizona lawman refused for more than a year to turn over records in an investigation into allegations his department discriminates against Hispanics, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)The Atlantic Wire -




Clinton: Time is now for Mideast peace (AP)

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas looks on as she hosted the re-launch of direct negotiations, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010, at the State Department in Washington\. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sought to inject urgency into Israeli-Palestinian peace talks Friday, warning the negotiations may be "the last chance for a very long time" to reach an agreement.




Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer at a loss for words in first debate (The Upshot)
The Upshot - It's a politician's worst nightmare: Drawing a complete blank in a high-profile debate. That's what happened to Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, who lost her train of thought during her opening statement during her first televised debate with her Democratic challenger, state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Brewer was in the middle of talking up her [...]

More Dems buck plan to let taxes increase for rich (AP)

FILE - In this Aug. 25, 2009 file photo, Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., conducts a town hall event in Springfield, Va. Chances are fading that Congress will allow taxes to rise, even for the nation's top earners. Worried about the fragile economy and their own upcoming election, a growing number of Democrats are joining the rock-solid Republican opposition to President Barack Obama's plans to let some of the Bush administration's tax cuts expire. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File)AP - Congress seems increasingly reluctant to let taxes go up, even on wealthier Americans.




Feingold to skip Obama rally in Wisconsin (The Upshot)
The Upshot - President Obama heads to Milwaukee  onMonday, where he'll mark Labor Day at a statewide union event with other local Democratic candidates — except for one. Sen. Russ Feingold, who is facing a tougher-than-expected re-election campaign, is too busy to meet up with Obama this weekend. It's the second time this summer that Feingold has dodged [...]

Dems have few options on economy (Politico)
Politico - Democrats desperate for quick policy action to boost the economy face an excruciating dilemma.

Ariz. rematch hinges on nat'l party (Politico)
Politico - The fight over Arizona's 5th District is shaping up as one of the toughest holds for Democrats.

What now for Gulf? Fire complicates drill debate (AP)

Boats are seen spraying water on an oil and gas platform that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Louisiana., Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010. All 13 crew members were rescued. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - What now for the Gulf? News of another oil rig fire in the Gulf of Mexico, so soon after the BP oil spill, has set off a wave of anxiety along the Gulf Coast and prompted calls for the government to extend its six-month ban on deepwater drilling.




Marine general says Taliban drug trade faltering (AP)
AP - The Taliban is confronting a serious "cash flow" problem after losing some half of its annual drug trade money to a farming blight and government eradication efforts, a Marine two-star general said Thursday.

Bosnian police track down suspected puppy killer (AP)
AP - Police in Bosnia say they believe they have located a young woman shown in a video throwing puppies into a river.

Obama unpopular ahead of midterms: Will the GOP benefit? (Time.com)

President Barack Obama delivers remarks on the latest employment statistics released on Friday, alongside Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in the Rose Garden of the White House, September 3, 2010. REUTERS/Jason ReedTime.com - Nine weeks before the midterm elections, Barack Obama finds himself on the wrong side of the polls. Where did all that adoration go -- and is a Republican sweep next?




Is the GOP ready for prime time? (The Week)
The Week - All signs point to big Republican gains in November, enabling the GOP to implement its agenda. But what agenda is that?

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