January 1, 2008

2 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani 20.8
Huckabee
 18.3
McCain 16.0
Romney 13.5
Thompson 11.8
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 22.2%
Clinton 46.0
Obama 23.8
Edwards 13.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +2.9%
Clinton +3.3%
New Hampshire
Romney +4.7%
Clinton +2.9%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

The Ref's Calls

Bhutto's Assassination Might Hurt Huckabee and Obama                     

In American politics the events that occur overseas generally only matter if they dominate the news cycle for at least twenty-four hours.  If the story lasts for more than three days because of demand for the story, as opposed to media driven interest, the story will begin to have a major impact for as long as the story lasts. If the story becomes an issue of constant fascination it can change the American political landscape. 

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, while tragic, will likely not prove to impact the American primaries significantly. The story will probably fade by the time Americans go to work on Tuesday morning. The horserace will take over the news cycle on Tuesday and dominate until the caucuses on Thursday.

One can imagine, however, a different scenario where pockets of voters focus on the Bhutto story more than the rest of us and change their vote because of it.  Voters who have underestimated the significance of terrorism in the newly elected president’s next term may be reminded of it and reevaluate their options.

In the Democratic race one might imagine that some Iowa voters have strayed from Hillary and to Obama because they are uncomfortable with her less than zealous opposition to the Iraq war. Perhaps some voters on the periphery might defect from Obama in favor of Hillary's somewhat more hawkish approach. Hillary is not hawkish except when compared to Obama. They might do this because the Bhutto story reminds them that we live in a dangerous world. 

On the Republican side one might imagine that Huckabee stands to lose the most as a result of the story. He is perceived to be softer on terrorism than Giuliani, McCain and Romney because of his distancing himself from the Bush "bunker mentality." This story reminds Iowa voters that terrorism is a danger we must deal with.

This story might aid Romney is drawing the contrast between his Huckabee's approaches to terrorism. This in conjunction with the attack on Huckabee from conservative talk radio might be enough to swing Iowa to Romney.  The Ref - Dec. 28, 2007

 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

32% 26%   32%    25%

Trustworthy Iowa Poll Shows Obama and Huckabee with Leads, But Within Margins of Error

Chelsea Clinton to 9 Year Old: "I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately."

Huckabee Uses Old Political Trick . . . It Worked

Iowa: Romney and Huckabee in a Dead Heat


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Democrats, White House close in on health bill (AP)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks about healthcare reform at her weekly news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 4, 2010. REUTERS/Jose Luis MaganaAP - House Democratic leaders on Thursday worked to rally their rank-and-file members around last-minute agreements on insurance taxes and prescription drug coverage that could move President Barack Obama's overhaul of the nation's health care system a step closer to reality.




Toyota troubles put spotlight on US safety agency (AP)

Toyota Prius vehicles are seen for sale Wednesday, March 10, 2010, in Hayward, Calif. The government sent investigators Tuesday to examine a Prius that sped out of control on a California freeway, and Toyota said it wanted to interview the driver as the besieged automaker dealt with a high-profile new headache that raised questions about the safety of its beloved hybrid. A day after state troopers helped the car slow to a stop and its driver to emerge unharmed, Toyota could shed no new light on what might have gone wrong. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)AP - Toyota's massive recalls are prompting Congress to reconsider whether the nation's auto safety agency has lived up to its mission of protecting motorists.




House votes to impeach US judge from Louisiana (AP)
AP - The House has voted to impeach a federal judge from Louisiana. A House Judiciary Committee task force charged District Judge G. Thomas Porteous Jr. with a long-standing pattern of corruption.

Dodd goes on without GOP support (Politico)
Politico - But he says talks with Sen. Bob Corker continue.

CBC: Obama not listening (Politico)
Politico - Tensions are rising as the caucus tries to stem the high unemployment rate among African-Americans.

Dodd to offer his own financial regulation bill (AP)

Tourists sunbath on a terrace in the Oia village on Santorini island. While the rest of the industry eyes an upturn after a 2009 depressed by the global economic turmoil, Greek officials fear another year in crisis for its all-important tourism sector.(AFP/File/Louisa Gouliamaki)AP - WASHINGTON AP) — Unable to muster bipartisan agreement on key banking provisions, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Thursday he will offer his own version of a sweeping overhaul of financial regulations without Republican support.




GOP wants Massa ethics probe reopened (AP)

FILE - This Tuesday Oct. 14, 2008 file photo shows Eric Massa, Democratic candidate for New York's 29th Congressional District in Rochester, N.Y. One is a former Democratic freshman who was little known outside his Corning-Olean-Pittsford, N.Y. district. The other, a 20-term Democratic kingpin from Harlem, known to New Yorkers and anyone following tax bills. But now, Republicans — looking for any opening to regain control of the House — are portraying newly resigned first-termer Eric Massa and veteran Charles Rangel as dual symbols of Democratic ethical misconduct. (AP Photo/David Duprey, File)AP - House Minority Leader John Boehner said Thursday he wants the ethics panel probe of former Rep. Eric Massa reopened to find out what Democratic leaders and their staff knew about the allegations.




House GOP adopts earmark moratorium (AP)
AP - Republicans seeking to regain control of the House say they will stop stuffing spending bills with pet projects for their districts.

'Little Billy's Letters' at a glance (AP)
AP - Excerpts from the responses by prominent figures to letters from "Little Billy," the grade-schooler alter ego of prankster Bill Geerhart, appearing in the book "Little Billy's Letters":

Wis. high court sides with dealer in Volvo dispute (AP)
AP - The Wisconsin Supreme Court has sided with a truck dealership in a dispute with a major manufacturer of semitrailers.

US military deaths in Iraq war at 4,382 (AP)
AP - As of Tuesday, March 9, 2010, at least 4,382 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.

UK man plans round-the-world trip in rotorcraft (AP)

Norman Surplus from Larne, Northern Ireland, waves to the media from his autogyro at Duxford, England, Thursday, March, 11, 2010. Surplus is to attempt a circumnavigation of the globe in the autogyro, starting from Larne on March 18, depending on the weather. With its open cockpit it will be flying through 26 countries, 27,000 miles including 4,300 miles over water, in an expedition that will raise awareness and money for bowel cancer. The specially adapted machine will have collapsible fuel tanks that will give it a range of some 900 miles. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)AP - A U.K. man says he plans to make the first round-the-world trip in a customized rotorcraft known as an autogyro.




UN wildlife watchdog considers ban on bluefin tuna (AP)

In this Jan. 12, 2010 photo, a man slices a piece of a frozen tuna purchased in the morning auction at Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo, Japan. A U.N. body best known for protecting tigers and elephants will focus on the world's overfished oceans beginning this week with proposals to regulate the shark trade and ban the export of a tuna species prized by sushi lovers. Japan, which consumes 80 percent of Atlantic bluefin, has said it will ignore the ban. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)AP - A U.N. body best known for protecting tigers and elephants will focus on the world's overfished oceans beginning this week with proposals to regulate the shark trade and ban the export of a tuna species prized by sushi lovers.




Obama lauds Colombian president for heeding court (AP)
AP - President Barack Obama is applauding Colombian President Alvaro Uribe for accepting a court decision that prevents him from running for a third term.

House rejects bid to pull troops from Afghanistan (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — The House of Representatives rejected a resolution Wednesday that called on President Barack Obama to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by year's end.

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